At-a-Glance
Today’s Top Highlights
Since the start of 2026, FX futures have experienced a volatile reversal of the softer dollar narrative that characterized the end of last year. While the U.S. dollar initially faced downward pressure in early January, a hawkish shift in market sentiment took hold by late January and early February. One catalyst was the potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which markets interpreted as a signal for a higher "neutral" interest rate and more disciplined monetary policy. Consequently, the U.S. Dollar staged a sharp recovery from four-year lows, dragging EUR/USD futures back lower and exerting significant pressure on major currency pairs.
In Asia and other G10 markets, risks have added to the turbulence. USD/JPY futures have seen intense activity as the yen weakened, fueled by concerns over Japan's fiscal sustainability. Looking at FedWatch, the probabilities have come down slightly for the March and April meetings, but are still pricing in a pause on interest rates for both months. With the strength in the dollar over the last few days and the selling in the Crypto futures continued today with Bitcoin falling over 12% to $65,000, traders will be watching to see if the market can find a floor or if the selling will continue.
Explore Additional Market Commentary
Traders Resources
The information in the market commentaries have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and expressly disclaim all liability. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. The information on this site compiled by CME Group is for general purposes only. All information and data herein is provided as-is. Additionally, all examples on this site are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. CME Group, its affiliates and any third party information and content providers expressly disclaim all liability with respect to the information and data contained herein including without limitation, any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any data. You use the data herein solely at your own risk. All data and information provided herein is not intended for trading purposes or for trading advice. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.
Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Due to the leveraged nature of futures trading and swaps trading, it is possible to lose more than the amount deposited in a position. Therefore, traders should not deposit more funds than they can afford to lose without negatively affecting their lifestyles. A trader cannot expect to profit on each trade, and should only devote a small amount of their available funds to each trade. All references to options refer to options on futures.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.
CME Group, the Globe Logo, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and CME are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX is the trademark of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Each of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (ARBN 103 432 391), The Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc (ARBN 110 594 459), the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc (ARBN 113 929 436) and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (ARBN 622 016 193) is a registered foreign company in Australia and holds an Australian market licence.
This site does not constitute a prospectus, product disclosure statement or legal advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or to utilise or refrain from utilising any particular service. Readers should consult their legal advisors for legal advice in connection with the matters covered on this site.
