At-a-Glance
Key Takeaways with Craig
US Equity prices were strong out of the gate, but quickly gave up ground and wound up broadly lower, though, not by dramatic percentages. Treasury yields came down, particularly at the short end of the curve, where CME’s 2-Year Yield future was lower by about 7 basis points. Implied volatility in CME’s Equity Index options was near steady on the day, while CVOL in the Treasury options ticked higher. Additionally, CME’s FedWatch tool predicts a slightly higher probability of a cut to the Fed Fund target rate at the June meeting.
In other markets, Bitcoin futures prices also rose initially but, despite remarks from President Trump addressing the Digital Asset conference reiterating the Administration’s support of cryptocurrencies, were trading lower by about 1.5% in late afternoon action. The top QuikStrike graph below depicts three months of price and implied volatility data in Bitcoin futures and options. The bottom QuikStrike graph depicts the at-the-money 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options (blue line) versus the historical, or realized, volatility (orange line) in Bitcoin futures prices. As a reminder, implied volatility is a measure of how much price movement the options market is pricing into the futures price, while historical volatility is an annualized measure of how much the price has actually moved over the last, in this case, 20 days. We thought it was interesting that from the end of January through the beginning of this month, the implied levels were trading above the historical, while that trend has reversed itself in the last couple of weeks.
And speaking of cryptocurrency futures, we wanted to make sure all our readers were aware of the most recent crypto futures product launch at CME. This past Sunday night (trade date 3/17), CME listed futures on SOL, which is the native cryptocurrency of the Solana blockchain.
The standard sized SOL (commodity code: SOL) future represents 500 SOL which, at today’s prices, means it has a notional value of about $65,000 per contract.
The Micro SOL (commodity code: MSL) future represents 25 SOL which, at today’s prices, means it has a notional value of about $3,250.
Please find more information on these new products here.
Todays Featured Videos
Traders Resources
The information in the market commentaries have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and expressly disclaim all liability. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. The information on this site compiled by CME Group is for general purposes only. All information and data herein is provided as-is. Additionally, all examples on this site are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. CME Group, its affiliates and any third party information and content providers expressly disclaim all liability with respect to the information and data contained herein including without limitation, any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any data. You use the data herein solely at your own risk. All data and information provided herein is not intended for trading purposes or for trading advice. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.
Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Due to the leveraged nature of futures trading and swaps trading, it is possible to lose more than the amount deposited in a position. Therefore, traders should not deposit more funds than they can afford to lose without negatively affecting their lifestyles. A trader cannot expect to profit on each trade, and should only devote a small amount of their available funds to each trade. All references to options refer to options on futures.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.
CME Group, the Globe Logo, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and CME are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX is the trademark of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Each of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (ARBN 103 432 391), The Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc (ARBN 110 594 459), the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc (ARBN 113 929 436) and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (ARBN 622 016 193) is a registered foreign company in Australia and holds an Australian market licence.
This site does not constitute a prospectus, product disclosure statement or legal advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or to utilise or refrain from utilising any particular service. Readers should consult their legal advisors for legal advice in connection with the matters covered on this site.
