At-a-Glance
Key Takeaways with Craig
US Equity Index prices were mixed today as the Nasdaq logged small gains while the other three major indexes fell. Implied volatility in CME’s Equity Index options markets ticked higher, but remains below the 3-month average.
In CME’s Treasury markets, the 2-Year Yield future was higher by about 4 basis points, while the 10-Year rose by nearly 5.5. On Tuesday, September 17th, the 10-Year Yield future settled at 3.640. Since then, and after the 50 basis point cut to the Fed Funds target rate on September 18th, the 10-Year Yield future has rallied to 3.785. In that same time period, the 2-Year Yield future is up by about 3 basis points. Meanwhile, CME’s FedWatch tool is reflecting a 60% probability of another 50 basis point cut at the November FOMC meeting; up from under 40% a week ago.
The last two days of the week bring us the US GDP report tomorrow and the PCE (inflation) report on Friday. The QuikStrike image below is of the volatility curve in CME’s E-mini Nasdaq-100 options. The heightened volatility in the options that expire tomorrow and Friday, versus early next week reflects the market-moving potential of these economic releases.
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