Key Takeaways with Craig

As might have been expected after a day that included the release of the US CPI report this morning and the FOMC decision on its Fed Funds target this afternoon, we saw a lot of price volatility in several different CME asset classes. 

US Equity Indexes spiked higher after the release of the CPI report and remained elevated through morning trading.  However, equity prices fluctuated after the FOMC announcement suggested that they were anticipating only one rate cut in 2024.  Ultimately, the major Indexes wound up mixed, while implied volatility in CME’s Equity Index options fell slightly and remains well below the six-month average. 

US Treasury yields, on the other hand, fell after the CPI was released, with the 10-Year Treasury Yield future trading as low as 4.245 and the 2-Year trading down to 4.63.  However, after the FOMC announcement, yields rallied a bit and wound up around 4.33 and 4.72, but both are approaching 3-month lows, as you can see in the image below from CME’s Treasury Analytics tool.  CVOL in the Treasury options was trading higher than yesterday’s close until the FOMC announcement, but fell after it was made. 

Finally, in other CME Group markets, most major currencies were higher versus the dollar, metals futures prices were up, with silver gaining about 2%, and WTI Crude Oil rose again, trading near $78.50 per barrel.  

Today's Future Price Action

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