Key Takeaways with Craig

We are publishing today’s edition of In FOCUS around midday in recognition of the upcoming Memorial Day holiday here in the US.  And because this weekend marks the unofficial beginning of Summer, we thought it was a good time to look back on Year-to-Date performance in some of CME’s major products.  We complied net price and volatility changes since the close on 12/29/2023 using CVOL and QuikStrike data in a format that should be familiar to regular In FOCUS readers.  As you’ll note, with the exception of a couple of the grains markets, lower volatility has defined 2024 so far. 

  • US Equity Index futures prices are up double digit percentages on the year while implied volatility in the options is trading at or near multi-year lows.
  • WTI Crude Oil futures prices are up by 9% while CVOL is down by over 20% so far this year.
  • Gold futures prices (along with several other metals) are up dramatically on the year, while CVOL is down just slightly.
  • CVOL in several FX options markets is trading well below the levels we saw at the end of 2023. 
  • US Treasury yields are higher, though CVOL in the options is down significantly.  The 2s versus 10s inversion has deepened so far in 2024. 
  • Finally, Bitcoin futures prices are up by over 60%, though implied volatility in the options has fallen. 

So that’s where we stand to date this year.  Of course many questions still remain on inflation, corresponding Fed policy, global economic growth and, of course, the US Presidential election later in the year.  We wish all of our readers a safe, happy and healthy Holiday weekend and we’ll see you on Tuesday.  

Traders Resources

The information in the market commentaries have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and expressly disclaim all liability. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. The information on this site compiled by CME Group is for general purposes only. All information and data herein is provided as-is. Additionally, all examples on this site are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. CME Group, its affiliates and any third party information and content providers expressly disclaim all liability with respect to the information and data contained herein including without limitation, any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any data. You use the data herein solely at your own risk. All data and information provided herein is not intended for trading purposes or for trading advice. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.

Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Due to the leveraged nature of futures trading and swaps trading, it is possible to lose more than the amount deposited in a position. Therefore, traders should not deposit more funds than they can afford to lose without negatively affecting their lifestyles. A trader cannot expect to profit on each trade, and should only devote a small amount of their available funds to each trade. All references to options refer to options on futures.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

CME Group, the Globe Logo, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and CME are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX is the trademark of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Each of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (ARBN 103 432 391), The Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc (ARBN 110 594 459), the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc (ARBN 113 929 436) and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (ARBN 622 016 193) is a registered foreign company in Australia and holds an Australian market licence.

This site does not constitute a prospectus, product disclosure statement or legal advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or to utilise or refrain from utilising any particular service. Readers should consult their legal advisors for legal advice in connection with the matters covered on this site.

CME Group is the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). 
Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.

© 2024 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.