At-a-Glance
Key Takeaways with Craig
We are publishing today’s edition of In FOCUS around midday in recognition of the upcoming Memorial Day holiday here in the US. And because this weekend marks the unofficial beginning of Summer, we thought it was a good time to look back on Year-to-Date performance in some of CME’s major products. We complied net price and volatility changes since the close on 12/29/2023 using CVOL and QuikStrike data in a format that should be familiar to regular In FOCUS readers. As you’ll note, with the exception of a couple of the grains markets, lower volatility has defined 2024 so far.
- US Equity Index futures prices are up double digit percentages on the year while implied volatility in the options is trading at or near multi-year lows.
- WTI Crude Oil futures prices are up by 9% while CVOL is down by over 20% so far this year.
- Gold futures prices (along with several other metals) are up dramatically on the year, while CVOL is down just slightly.
- CVOL in several FX options markets is trading well below the levels we saw at the end of 2023.
- US Treasury yields are higher, though CVOL in the options is down significantly. The 2s versus 10s inversion has deepened so far in 2024.
- Finally, Bitcoin futures prices are up by over 60%, though implied volatility in the options has fallen.
So that’s where we stand to date this year. Of course many questions still remain on inflation, corresponding Fed policy, global economic growth and, of course, the US Presidential election later in the year. We wish all of our readers a safe, happy and healthy Holiday weekend and we’ll see you on Tuesday.
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