Key Takeaways with Craig

US Equity prices fell again today as stocks have had a bit of a rough first two days of the quarter.  While implied volatility in CME’s Equity Index options rose yesterday, it really popped today, particularly in the E-mini S&P 500 options where 30-day at the money vol  increased from 11.26% to over 12.5%, as you can see in the upper graph below from QuikStrike.  Of course, that is an increase from relatively low levels, but, as you can see, a substantial increase. 

US Treasury Yields moved higher at the longer end of the curve, but this time, only by about 3 basis points.  CVOL in CME’s Treasury options conitnued to rise as well. 

CME’s commodity futures were active again today as Gold continued higher, as did WTI Crude Oil futures prices.  Gold futures prices were up by about 1.75%, CVOL in the options reached levels last seen around October, 2023 and the skew is as high (Call skew) as it’s been in about a year.  WTI Crude Oil futures prices were also up by about 1.75% to over $85 per barrel, the highest they’ve been since October of last year.  Even though CVOL in the WTI Crude Oil options has increased over the last several days, it remains well below the 1-year average, while the skew has shifted to a Call skew over the last couple of weeks.

Finally, as we look toward the second half of the week, the ADP jobs report is expected out tomorrow at 7:15 AM central time tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak a bit later and Friday will bring us the March Employment Siuation report.    

Today's Future Price Action

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