Key Takeaways with Craig

Early in today’s trading session, US Equity prices were lower and Treasury yields were higher, after a stronger than expected payroll report from ADP was released.  However, by late afternoon, only the Dow Jones Industrials were trading lower on the day, while the three other major US Indexes were up and both the 2 and 10-Year Treasury Yield futures contracts were down by just about 1 basis point.  CVOL continued higher in CME’s Treasury options markets and implied volatility in both the E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 options traded higher, even as the prices rose. 

CME metals futures continued to grab headlines as both Gold and Silver prices continued their upward climb.  We’ve covered the record move in Gold rather extensively in this column lately but have not talked as much about the silver market.  The three graphs on the left side of the image below depict, from top to bottom, the price of Gold futures, Gold CVOL and Gold Skew while the three graphs in the middle illustrate the same for Silver.  As you can see, while not at all-time highs, Silver is at 1-year highs and, in fact, is higher than it’s been since the end of June, 2021.  Moreover, the moves in CVOL and Skew in Silver options have, in some respects, been more dramatic than those in the Gold options market.  CVOL is trading right at 1-year high levels while the Calls are as high relative to the Puts as they’ve been in over a year.  Finally, the “bonus” graph on the right side of the image depicts the price of Gold futures divided by the price of Silver and clearly shows the recent outperformance of Silver.

So, that’s where we stand as we look toward Friday’s release of the March Employment Situation report.  For those also in the Chicago area, we hope you can embrace the winter-in-April weather and we’ll see you tomorrow.                

Today's Future Price Action

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