Key Takeaways with Craig

Well that was quite a month!  After a moderate stock market rally today following the PCE report that was in line with expectations, both the E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 wound up 6% higher for the month of February.  We’ve summarized the monthly net changes in price and volatility in some of CME’s major products below using QuikStrike and CVOL data. 

  • As stated above, US Equity Indexes traded sharply higher on the month and implied volatility in CME’s Equity Options products is trading very low levels compared to historical norms. CME’s E-mini Nasdaq-100 closed at an all-time high. 
  • WTI Crude Oil futures prices remain in a range while CVOL was down by about 13% on the month.
  • Gold futures prices are also somewhat rangebound and CVOL levels were down 20% on the month. 
  • Treasury yields were higher on the month with the 2-Year climbing more than the 10-Year, resulting in a widening of that inversion. 
  • CME grains markets were active, which is reflected in the CVOL levels shown below. 
  • Natural Gas futures prices were down 12%, though well off the lows earlier in the month. 
  • Finally, Bitcoin Futures prices were up a whopping 46% on the month and implied volatility in the options is trading at recent highs. 

So with the leap year-prolonged February now in our rear view mirror, and stocks prices at or near records, we will be back tomorrow to report on whether March come in like a Lion or a Lamb!

Today's Future Price Action

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