Key Takeaways with Craig

US Equity prices struggled to find a clear direction and wound up little changed on the day after the December Employment report reflected stronger than expected job gains, at least in the headline numbers.  US Treasury yields rose at the longer end of the curve with the Micro 10-Year and 30-Year Treasury futures up by about 6 basis points while the 2-Year was little changed.  Ultimately, US Equity prices wound up lower on the first week of trading in 2024 and yields rose.  Incidentally, CME’s FedWatch tool continues to reflect expectations for cuts to the Fed Funds rate target rate in 2024, though slightly more muted than they were a week ago.  Below are the net price and volatility changes in some of CME’s major products after one week, compiled using QuikStrike and CVOL data. 

  • As stated above, US Equities were lower with the E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 down by about 2% and 3%, respectively.  Implied volatility in the options rose, but remains below the 3-month average. 
  • Gold futures prices were slightly lower while CVOL in the options fell sharply.
  • Micro 10-Year Treasury Yield futures rose by about 20 basis points on the week though CVOL in CME’s Treasury options fell by about 6%.
  • Natural Gas futures prices rose by about 15% and CVOL continued higher as well.
  • Cryptocurrency futures prices remained volatile throughout the week; Bitcoin prices ended up about 4% higher while implied volatility continued to climb. 

As you can see, we wasted no time getting back into it after the holidays.  Have a happy and healthy weekend and stay safe if you’re in the path of the winter storm here in the US!

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