Key Takeaways with Craig

US Equities saw muted price action for most of the trading day, ultimately ending little changed, while US Treasury Yields, at least at the short end of the curve, declined after the PPI release showed lower than expected producer inflation.  As has been the case all week, Natural Gas futures prices remain active as they rallied by about 8% today.  With all the activity over the first two weeks of the year, we’ve recapped both weeks below, rather than just this week.  Below are the Year-to-date net price and volatility changes in some of CME’s major products, compiled using QuikStrike and CVOL data:

  • After a price sell-off and increase in implied volatility in CME’s Equity Index futures and options last week, they reversed this week to both wind up nearly unchanged since the end of last year.
  • WTI Crude Oil futures prices are up by just about 2% but CVOL is up by 10% after escalating tensions in the Middle East.  The options, which were trading with a Put skew at the end of last year now have a Call skew.
  • After a 1.5% price rally today, Gold futures are trading right around where they were at the end of the year.  CVOL is down sharply.
  • The Micro 10-Year Yield is up while the Micro 2-Year is down on the year.  Consequently, the inversion between the 2 has narrowed to about 11 basis points.  CVOL has declined in CME’s Treasury options.
  • Natural Gas prices, which we’ve spent a lot of time on this week, are up 33% since the end of last year.  CVOL is trading near one-year highs. 
  • Finally, Bitcoin futures prices, after trading over 49k yesterday, were trading under 44k in late afternoon action.  Implied volatility in the options continued to fall today though the Put skew became more pronounced. 

That’s where we stand after a busy first couple weeks to the year.  We wish all of our In FOCUS readers a healthy and happy weekend and, for those in the path of the winter storms traversing the country, stay safe!

Today's Future Price Action

Traders Resources

The information in the market commentaries have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and expressly disclaim all liability. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. The information on this site compiled by CME Group is for general purposes only. All information and data herein is provided as-is. Additionally, all examples on this site are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. CME Group, its affiliates and any third party information and content providers expressly disclaim all liability with respect to the information and data contained herein including without limitation, any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any data. You use the data herein solely at your own risk. All data and information provided herein is not intended for trading purposes or for trading advice. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.

Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Due to the leveraged nature of futures trading and swaps trading, it is possible to lose more than the amount deposited in a position. Therefore, traders should not deposit more funds than they can afford to lose without negatively affecting their lifestyles. A trader cannot expect to profit on each trade, and should only devote a small amount of their available funds to each trade. All references to options refer to options on futures.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

CME Group, the Globe Logo, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and CME are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX is the trademark of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Each of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (ARBN 103 432 391), The Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc (ARBN 110 594 459), the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc (ARBN 113 929 436) and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (ARBN 622 016 193) is a registered foreign company in Australia and holds an Australian market licence.

This site does not constitute a prospectus, product disclosure statement or legal advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or to utilise or refrain from utilising any particular service. Readers should consult their legal advisors for legal advice in connection with the matters covered on this site.

CME Group is the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). 
Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.

© 2024 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.