Key Takeaways with Craig

Happy New Year and welcome to In FOCUS 2024!  We hope all of our readers enjoyed the holiday season and are ready for another exciting year.  In today’s Key Takeaways section, we look back at 2023 in a format that should be familiar to regular readers. 

In many of the markets we looked at, including Equities, FX, Interest Rates,  Gold and WTI Crude Oil, we saw spikes in volatility in March after the Silicon Valley Bank failure and then again in October when US 10-Year Treasury yields had climbed to 5%.  However, towards the end of November and through December, US Treasury Yields began to fall and Equity prices rallied in a move that was accentuated during the last couple weeks of the year after the FOMC meeting that ended on December 14th.  Ultimately, after the dust had settled on a busy 2023, here are some of the highlights of net price and volatility changes in 2023 in some of CME’s major products, compiled using CVOL and QuikStrike data. 

  • US Equity Indexes rallied sharply and implied volatility fell.  E-mini Nasaq-100 futures prices were up by over 50% while volatility in the options fell by about 44%.  E-mini S&PP 500 futures rose by nearly 25% while implied volatility in the options was nearly cut in half. 
  • After reaching a yearly high of over $90 per barrel in late September, WTI Crude Oil had fallen to near $70 by the end of the year, down 11% from last December.  CVOL was down by about 17% in the options. 
  • As US Treasury Yields declined at the end of the year, Gold futures prices rallied and wound up about 13% higher at the end of the year and near all time highs.  CVOL was nearly unchanged from the previous December. 
  • Similar to Gold, Euro FX futures prices rallied at the end of the year and were up 3% versus the US Dollar.  CVOL was about 27% lower than it was a year earlier. 
  • Somewhat remarkably, given all the volatility during most of 2023, the Micro 10-Year Yield wound up just about where it started.  However, as we’ve mentioned, that came after a lot of back and forth movement. 
  • Finally, Bitcoin futures price appreciation stole the show, up a whopping 157% on the year while implied volatility in the options had risen from 48% to 65%.

So that’s a wrap on 2023 and we’re on to 2024 which has begun with lower equity prices, higher yields and generally higher volatility… at least on the first day!

Today's Future Price Action

Traders Resources

The information in the market commentaries have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and expressly disclaim all liability. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. The information on this site compiled by CME Group is for general purposes only. All information and data herein is provided as-is. Additionally, all examples on this site are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. CME Group, its affiliates and any third party information and content providers expressly disclaim all liability with respect to the information and data contained herein including without limitation, any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any data. You use the data herein solely at your own risk. All data and information provided herein is not intended for trading purposes or for trading advice. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.

Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Due to the leveraged nature of futures trading and swaps trading, it is possible to lose more than the amount deposited in a position. Therefore, traders should not deposit more funds than they can afford to lose without negatively affecting their lifestyles. A trader cannot expect to profit on each trade, and should only devote a small amount of their available funds to each trade. All references to options refer to options on futures.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

CME Group, the Globe Logo, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and CME are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX is the trademark of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Each of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (ARBN 103 432 391), The Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc (ARBN 110 594 459), the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc (ARBN 113 929 436) and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (ARBN 622 016 193) is a registered foreign company in Australia and holds an Australian market licence.

This site does not constitute a prospectus, product disclosure statement or legal advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or to utilise or refrain from utilising any particular service. Readers should consult their legal advisors for legal advice in connection with the matters covered on this site.

CME Group is the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). 
Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.

© 2024 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.