Highlights
The other speaker on the calendar is Fed Governor Philip Jefferson at 3 pm ET on the economic outlook and monetary policy implementation before the American Institute for Economic Research, Shadow Open Market Committee, and Florida Atlantic University Conference.
Remarks from many Fed speakers so far this week stressing concerns about excessive inflation, plus release of surprisingly buoyant economic indicators, have prompted markets to scale back expectations for rate cuts this year. The CBOE FedWatch tool shows markets are pricing overwhelming odds of no change in the federal funds rate target at the January meeting, at the March meeting, and at the April meeting, and basically a 50-50 chance in June of a 25 basis point cut. It also sees declining prospects for a second 25 bp cut by year end.
Oil prices are in focus again today after a big drop on Thursday as markets scale back expectations for US military intervention in Iran, which presumably would disrupt oil supplies. That came after President Trump said without citing evidence that he believed Iranian officials were no longer planning to execute protesters.