SOYBEANS:
Quarterly Bean Stocks reported December 1 were 3.290 billion bushels, versus expectations of 3.259 billion bushels and a range of 2.95 to 3.445 billion. December 1 stocks last year were 3.1 billion. On-farm stocks were 1.576 billion bushels, up/down from 1.54 billion a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 1.714 billion bushels, higher than 1.56 billion a year ago.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Today's Supply/Demand and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports can be considered bearish, with yields unchanged from last month, carryout significantly above expectations due to an export decrease, and quarterly stocks above expectations as well. The dry finish to the growing season appears not to have reduced yield, and that may be disappointing to the bulls, as the market reaction to the report has been weak. Now, China's demand must impress with the US supply outlook loosening, or the market may see a new leg lower. The report puts the bears in the driver's seat for the near-term, especially with the Brazilian bean harvest beginning.


CORN:
Quarterly Grain Stocks reported December 1 corn stocks at 13.282 billion bushels, versus an average expectation of 12.981 billion bushels and a range of 11.928-13.369 billion. December 1 stocks last year were 12.075 billion. On-farm stocks were 8.699 billion bushels, up from 7.663 billion a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 4.583 billion bushels, higher than 4.412 billion in 2024.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Today's Supply/Demand and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports can be considered bearish, as the yield rose unexpectedly and harvested acres and carryout increased, resulting in larger-than-anticipated supplies. Quarterly stocks were also bearish, and the dry finish to the growing season apparently failed to reduce the record yields. With the carryout now expected to be well over 2 billion, the market will struggle on rallies unless demand support steps up significantly. March corn has fallen through the bottom of the recent range post-report, suggesting further weakness.


WHEAT:
Quarterly Grain Stocks reported December 1 all wheat stocks at 1.675 billion bushels, versus an average expectation of 1.637 billion bushels and a range of 1.573-1.738 billion. December 1 stocks last year were 1.573 billion. On-farm stocks were 446 million bushels, down from 467 million a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 1.229 billion bushels, higher than 1.106 billion in 2024.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Today's Supply/Demand, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings reports can be considered bearish on higher ending stocks for the US and world, slightly larger wheat seedings than expected, and quarterly stocks coming in above the average guess. The US balance sheet featured minimal changes but a minor cut to feed and residual raised ending stocks. Global supplies remain bearish, and the market reaction to the report has been negative. But mildly so, and wheat may hold up better than corn and beans due to the significant managed money short position. There is no bull story, but bouts of short covering are likely.

This full-text report, issued four times yearly, contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, mustard seed, by States and U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage); includes number and capacity of off-farm storage facilities and capacity of on-farm storage facilities. The data is obtained via an off and on-farm stocks survey, the on-farm survey is a probability survey of farm operators, the off-farm stocks survey is enumerates the volume of grain in all known commercial grain storage facilities.

Unlike the WASDE and other USDA reports, this report measures actual (counted) supply, not estimates or forecasts. It helps verify or correct the estimates in other the USDA reports, such as WASDE.

September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.

The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.

The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.