ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Total Vehicle Sales - Annual Rate15.7M15.3M to 15.9M16.0M15.6M15.7M
North American-Made Sales - Annual Rate12.7M12.1M12.3M

Highlights

Sales of new motor vehicles are up to a 16.0 million unit seasonally adjusted annual pace in December after 15.7 million units in November. The December sales pace is above the consensus of 15.7 million units in the Econoday survey of forecasters. Sales reflect the holiday period discounts and incentives that stretch into the weekend after the New Year's observance. Sales of domestically produced motor vehicles are up to 12.7 million units in December after 12.3 million units in November and are slower than the 12.8 million unit pace a year ago. Sales of domestically produced vehicles account for 79 percent of total ales in December and are on trend with the second half of 2025.

Sales of passenger cars are up to 2.773 million units in December after 2.529 million units in November but are below the 2.994 million units in December 2024. Sales of light trucks which include minivans, crossovers, and SUVs are up to 13.249 million units after 13.188 in the prior month and lower than 13.850 million units in December 2024. Sales of light trucks continue to dominate motor vehicle sales with 83 percent of the sales total, just below the record of 84 percent in the July to November period.

Sales of heavy trucks which are mostly to businesses are down to 311,000 in December after 336,000 in November and well below the 461,000 in December 2024. Sales of heavy trucks have softened fairly steadily since the start of the year and suggest that businesses front-loaded investment in equipment to avoid higher costs related to tariffs.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Sales expected to remain pretty flat and unimpressive at 15.7 million units in December versus 15.6 million in November.

Definition

Unit sales of motor vehicles, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the beginning of each month, include domestic sales and imports. Domestics are sales of autos produced in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Imports are U.S. sales of vehicles produced elsewhere. The data track all passenger cars and light trucks up to 14,000 pounds gross weight (including minivans and sport utility vehicles). Though totals include a relatively small portion sold to businesses, motor vehicle sales are good indicators of trends in consumer spending and often are considered a leading indicator at business cycle turning points.

Description

Since motor vehicle sales are an important element of consumer spending, market players watch this closely to get a handle on the direction of the economy. The pattern of consumption spending is one of the foremost influences on stock and bond markets. Strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. The bond market focus is on whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s.

Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market during the 2001 recession but then, boosted by a low interest rate environment, rose sharply through 2007 before falling sharply during the Great Recession. Sales then recovered and, once again boosted by low rates, began a long period of steady and favorable growth.

In a more specific sense, auto and truck sales show market conditions for auto makers and the slew of auto-related companies. These figures can influence particular stock prices and provide insight to investment opportunities in this industry. Given that most consumers borrow money to buy cars or trucks, sales also reflect confidence in current and future economic conditions.
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