ActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month-0.1%-1.1%-0.9%
Year over Year0.6%0.2%0.6%

Highlights

Retail activity over the year, remained stable at 0.6 percent, indicating that growth was unchanged from the previous month. This suggests that retail sales expanded at the same rate in both the current and preceding months, pointing to steady but subdued momentum in consumer spending.

However, the monthly data reveal continued fragility. Sales volumes fell marginally in November by 0.1 percent, extending a run of monthly declines, with supermarkets recording a fourth consecutive drop amid weak footfall. Non-store retailing also softened as demand for gold eased, reflecting more cautious consumer behaviour. These losses were partly offset by gains in non-food stores, where extended Black Friday promotions boosted department stores, footwear, and fuel sales.

The Black Friday effect was present but muted. Non-seasonally adjusted volumes surged, yet seasonally adjusted figures suggest discounting was less powerful than in previous years, consistent with survey evidence showing more consumers planning to limit spending. Online spending continues to outperform, rising strongly on both a quarterly and annual basis, and nudging the online share of total retail higher.

Overall, retail sales remain below pre-pandemic levels, with growth driven more by channel shifts and targeted spending than broad-based consumer confidence.

Definition

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data include all internet business whose primary function is retailing and also cover internet sales by other British retailers, such as online sales by supermarkets, department stores and catalogue companies. Headline UK retail sales are reported in volume, not cash, terms but are available in both forms. The data are derived from a monthly survey of 5,000 businesses in Great Britain. The sample represents the whole retail sector and includes the 900 largest retailers and a representative panel of smaller businesses, including internet sales. Collectively, all of these businesses cover approximately 90 percent of the retail industry in terms of turnover.

Description

With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. The monthly retail sales report contains sales data in both pounds sterling and volume. UK retail sales data exclude auto sales.

The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
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