ActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month0.7%0.6%0.5%
Year over Year2.7%1.5%1.8%

Highlights

Retail sales rose at their fastest pace since June, up 0.7 percent month-on-month in real terms after a revised 0.5 (0.6) percent increase in September. Compared to the comparable year-ago period, sales increased 2.7 percent, also the fastest rate since June when they rose 4.2 percent.

While there were modest monthly declines in sales of food, beverages, and tobacco (minus 0.5 percent) and internet and market sales (minus 0.2 percent), gains were widespread and more robust in other categories.

Sales of household appliances, textiles, furnishings, and home repair increased 1.4 percent month-on-month in October, as did sales of other goods. Communications and electronics goods sales rose 1.3 percent after a 2.8 percent gain in September. The sector has been quite robust this year, having contracted only twice since January.

Clothing and footwear sales grew by 2.6 percent in October from the previous month when they fell 0.4 percent. Motor fuel sales rose 1.0 percent during the month after falling 1.8 percent in September. Excluding these, overall retail sales rose a more modest 0.5 percent.

Today's data show a more willing consumer and offer a good start to the third quarter. With the US and Swiss governments reaching an agreement on tariffs of 15 percent from 39 percent, that could prompt consumer sentiment.

Definition

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The survey comprises around 4,000 companies with the small-sized firms asked to provide monthly turnover data on a quarterly basis. Statistics are provided in both nominal and volume measures; the latter is the more important for financial markets. The headline figure is the annual growth in sales volumes adjusted for differences in trading days. Seasonally adjusted monthly changes are also provided. Details are limited in the first estimate but a more complete picture is provided with the following month's release.

Description

Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
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