ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Employment - M/M-5,000-14,000 to 10,00053,60066,600
Unemployment Rate7.0%6.9% to 7.0%6.5%6.9%
Participation Rate65.3%

Highlights

For a third consecutive month, the Canadian economy added far more jobs than expected, with employment rising 53,600 in November, topping even the most optimistic forecast of 10,000 in an Econoday survey.

The unemployment rate came down to 6.5 percent from 6.9 percent, the lowest since July 2024, where forecasters had expected an increase to 7.0 percent. The participation rate declined to 65.1 percent from 65.3 percent the previous month.

Average hourly wage growth accelerated to 3.6 percent year-over-year (unadjusted) from 3.5 percent in October.

The report comes on the back of a stronger GDP than the Bank of Canada had projected for the third quarter, and not by a small margin: 2.6 percent vs. 0.5 percent on an annualized basis.

But just as the strong headline GDP number overshadowed weakening household spending, today's job report isn't exactly as strong as the headline suggests, with all the jobs created being part-time (63,000), while full-time employment was down 9,400.

The proportion of people who were employed in October and lost their job in November the layoff rate - edged down to 0.7 percent in November from 0.8 percent a year earlier, in line with the average from 2017 to 2019.

Still, when also taking the wage growth pickup into account, the odds of the BoC bringing back rate cuts to the table remain small, especially since the central bank has raised the bar to do so. It might want to get more clarity from additional data in the fourth quarter.

In November, private-sector employment was up 52,200 and public sector up 16,300, while self-employment declined 14,700.

The goods-producing industry added 11,000 jobs on the month, with gains across all major categories except for a 9,300 decline in manufacturing. Construction led the increase with 6,200 jobs.

Services added 42,800 jobs in November, led by a 45,500 gain in health care and social assistance, followed by increases of 14,200 in accommodation and food services and 11,100 in information, culture and recreation. By contrast, wholesale and retail trade was down 34,100.

During the three months ended in November, total employment increased 180,600 compared to a decline of 23,200 from June to August. Full-time employment was up 78,200 owing to a 106,100 gain in September, while part-time increased 102,500, including 148,100 just over the past two months.

The share of people working part-time involuntarily was 17.9 percent in November, slightly up from 17.6 percent a year earlier, although it is below the 2017-2019 average of 19.3 percent.

Overall, perceived job security declined as well, with 73.6 percent of employees feeling secure, down 4.1 percentage points from November 2023, the last available data. The decline was most notable in public administration, educational services, and professional, scientific and technical services.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Another weak jobs report with a decline in employment and the unemployment rate rising to 7.0 percent from 6.9 percent in October.

Definition

The Labour Force Survey is a key economic indicator giving an overall picture of employment and unemployment. Employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.

Description

As in the U.S., this report is used as an indicator of the health of the domestic economy. Employment trends and break-downs by industry groups highlight the strength in job creation and the implications for future sectoral activity. The unemployment rate is used as an indicator of tightness in labor markets and can foreshadow a future increase in wages. Labor force data provide investors with the earliest signs of industry performance. While other data are produced with a month or two delay, these data are available only a week to 10 days after the end of the latest month. Reactions can be dramatic - especially when the result is unanticipated.

The information in the report is invaluable for investors. By looking at employment trends in the various sectors, investors can take more strategic control of their portfolio. If employment in certain industries is growing, there could be investment opportunities in the firms within that industry.

The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.

The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.
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