Highlights

Below is a statement from Statistics Canada:

"The releases of Canadian international merchandise trade and Canadian international trade in services for the October 2025 reference month will not occur today as originally planned and are tentatively set to be released on January 8, 2026. For more information, please consult"Impacts of the partial US government shutdown on the upcoming release of Canadian international trade data."

This delay impacts the publication of all products related to the release of October international trade data, including analytical reports in The Daily, and updates to data tables and interactive tools such as the Canadian International Merchandise Trade Web Application (Catalogue number71-607-X) and the International trade monthly interactive dashboard (Catalogue number71-607-x). The publication of revisions to prior months normally applicable with the October release will also be delayed.

New tentative publication dates for Canadian international merchandise trade statistics
Canada's international merchandise trade statistics for the September 2025 reference month are now scheduled to be published on December 11, 2025; for the October 2025 reference month, on January 8, 2026; for the November 2025 reference month, on January 29, 2026; for the December 2025 reference month, on February 19, 2026, and for the January 2026 reference month, on March 12, 2026. These dates apply equally for the publication of monthly data on Canada's international trade in services and remain subject to change. Statistics Canada will communicate any updates to release dates should changes be necessary. Following these releases, it is expected that the publication of monthly international trade statistics will return to the originally planned release schedule."

Definition

The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness. Nominal data are supplied with regards to principal trading partners and product classification.

Description

Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets. This is particularly true for Canada which relies on exports and particularly those to the U.S. for growth. It should be noted that this report focuses solely on goods trade - it leaves services trade for the quarterly national accounts and balance of payments reports.

Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Canadian goods in the U.S. and elsewhere. The Canadian dollar is particularly sensitive to changes in its trade balance with the U.S. For the most part, Canada's trade balance is in surplus thanks to its exports to the U.S. Both the nominal export and import values are split into volume (real) and price components. This permits trade data to be analyzed for both changes in trade patterns as well as changing prices. This has been particularly important of late given energy price volatility and the impact on Canada's merchandise shipments. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.

The bond market is sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
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