Japan’s export values are expected to rise for the third consecutive year-on-year increase in November, supported by robust demand from Europe and Asia and aided by the yen’s continued weakness. Still, shipments to the U.S. likely remained sluggish as Trump’s tariff policy continues to weigh on Japanese auto exports. Nevertheless, the Japanese trade balance is projected to return to surplus for the first time in five months.

Export values are forecast to increase 2.6 percent on the year in November following a 3.6 percent gain in October, when exports to both Europe and Asia rose for the third straight month, while shipments to the U.S. fell for the seventh consecutive month. Exports in November are seen increasing in items including computer chips, electronic components, and pharmaceuticals while the impact of the U.S. tariffs is expected to undermine automobile exports.

Import values are also expected to rise for the third straight month, with an estimated 0.5 percent increase in November following a 0.7 percent gain in October and a 3.3 percent rebound in September.

Taking these factors together, the trade balance is projected to post its first surplus in five months, estimated at a modest surplus of ¥47.6 billion after a revised ¥226.07 billion deficit in October and a ¥120.81 billion deficit in November 2024.

Merchandise Trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.

Japan's merchandise trade balance measures visible trade and excludes services. Specifically it is the difference between imports of goods and exports of goods. A positive value indicates a trade surplus (exports exceed imports) while a negative value indicates a trade deficit (imports exceed exports). Movements in the trade balance reflect altered demand for Japanese exports which subsequently impact the yen's value and directly affect GDP growth because of the economy's dependence on trade.

The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have a dramatic effect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.