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Highlights

The Swiss National Bank elected not to move rates into negative territory, keeping its policy rate at 0.0 percent following its latest policy meeting. Economists in an Econoday survey expected the central bank to stand pat.

In addition to the policy rate, the SNB kept the discount rate for sight deposits at 0.25 percent. It also repeated that it will be active in the foreign exchange market if necessary.

Inflation has been tame in recent months, which prompted the SNB to lower its inflation forecasts. It expects annual inflation for 2026 at 0.3 percent, down from the 0.5 percent predicted in its September forecast. For 2027, it sees inflation picking up to 0.6 percent year-on-year, a tick lower than the 0.7 percent in the September forecast.

Turning to economic growth, the SNB said that economic uncertainty has moderated since its last meeting although the global economy is still facing significant risks. It could be that US trade policy could dampen economic activity, saying it's possible the US could increase trade barriers once again.

With the lowering of US tariffs, Switzerland's economic outlook is rosier, with GDP expected to grow 1.5 percent this year and 1.0 percent in 2026. The main risk to the export-oriented Swiss economy is how the global economy develops.

Today's decision contained no real surprises, with the SNB reluctant at this juncture to dip its toes back into negative interest rates despite moderating inflation and moderate GDP growth. The world is still awaiting a decision by the US Supreme Court on the legality of most of the US'S tariffs which, if overturned, could lead to more volatility in the global economy.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Expectations call for the SNB to keep rates steady again after holding at 0 last time.

Definition

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) usually announces any changes to its monetary stance at its quarterly Monetary Policy Assessment. However, adjustments can be made at any time. Since 2000 monetary policy has consisted of the following three elements: a definition of price stability, a medium-term inflation forecast and a target range for a reference interest rate, the three-month Swiss franc Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate). The SNB attempts to secure an annual inflation rate as specified by the consumer price index (CPI) of less than 2 percent. In recent times this has involved sizeable intervention in the foreign exchange market to prevent appreciation of the Swiss franc although since January 2015 there has been no explicit exchange rate target.

Description

The aim of the SNB's monetary policy is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. By keeping prices stable (2 percent annual inflation rate), the SNB seeks to create an environment in which the economy can fully exploit its production potential. The Bank is required to set its policy to meet the needs of the Swiss economy as a whole rather than the interests of individual regions or industries.

The SNB has traditionally implemented its monetary policy by fixing a target range of 1.0 percentage points at the level deemed appropriate for the three-month Swiss franc Libor. The Bank has then normally sought to hold the rate around the middle of that corridor. However, as a result of strong capital inflows into the local currency prompted by the 2008/09 global downturn, this objective range has been both narrowed and reduced to just 0.0 - 0.25 percent, with a point target of 0.0 percent. In fact, since September 2011 the thrust of policy has been determined largely by the SNB's expressed aim of preventing the CHF strengthening beneath a CHF1.20 floor versus the euro.

The Swiss National Bank publishes its monetary policy assessments on a quarterly basis in March, June, September and December. In these reports it describes the current monetary environment and formulates its monetary policy intentions for the following quarter. It also provides inflation forecasts which help financial markets to formulate of where monetary policy might be headed. Twice a year -- in June and in December -- the Bank holds a media conference. At that time, the Governing Board provides information about the economic situation and comments on its monetary policy.
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