ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month-0.5%-2.0% to 0.5%1.5%1.1%2.0%
Year over Year-0.5%-4.3%-3.4%

Highlights

Month-over-month, new orders rose by 1.5 percent, outperforming the consensus and signalling a modest rebound, although they remained 0.5 percent below last year's level. The headline increase was shaped heavily by an exceptional surge in other transport equipment, where an 87.1 percent jump, driven by a single large-scale order, lifted the overall figures.

Basic metals also strengthened, while electrical equipment saw a sharp fall, revealing uneven sectoral momentum. Capital goods orders grew strongly (4.9 percent), suggesting firms are continuing to invest, yet intermediate and consumer goods declined, pointing to softer underlying demand.

Despite a 4.0 percent fall in foreign orders, domestic demand increased sharply by 9.9 percent, indicating renewed confidence within the home market. Turnover offered a quieter signal, rising by 0.3 percent month-over-month but still trailing last year's level. The three-month trend remains slightly negative, showing that volatility, rather than sustained recovery, continues to characterise the sector.

In summary, October's data hints at early signs of strengthening activity, but the reliance on large transport orders and ongoing weakness in key segments shows that the recovery is still fragile. These updates take the RPI to 6 and the RPI-P to 7, meaning that economic activities are now within the expectations of the German economy.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Orders expected to retreat by 0.5 percent after jumping 1.1 percent in September.

Definition

Manufacturers orders are a leading indicator for industrial production. The figures are calculated every month by the Federal Statistical Office and represent the value of all orders for the delivery of self-made products confirmed by industrial enterprises with 50 or more employees in the respective reporting period. The results are broken down by both sector and region of origin (domestic and foreign split into euro area and non-euro area). Monthly volatility can be very high so moving averages give a much better guide to underlying trends.

Description

Manufacturers orders data are keenly awaited by analysts each month. The data present a detailed breakdown by various sectors and a reading of the pulse of a major sector of the economy. Like the PPI, manufacturing orders data exclude construction, which is the preferred Eurostat measure.

The manufacturers orders data rank among the most important early indicators for monitoring and analyzing German economic wellbeing. Because these data are available for both foreign and domestic orders they are a good indication of the relative strength of the domestic and export economies. The results are compiled each month in the form of value indexes to measure the nominal development of demand and in the form of volume indexes to illustrate the price-adjusted development of demand. Unlike in the U.S., orders data are not collected for all manufacturing classifications - but only those parts in which the make-to-order production plays a prominent role. Not included are, for example, mining, quarrying and the food industry.
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