| Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted Index | 48.4 | 52.4 |
| Unadjusted Index | 44.5 | 51.7 |
Highlights
Canada's Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) retreated for the second consecutive month, reaching 48.4 in November, its lowest level since April 2025, down from 52.4 in October and 59.8 in September. The index had not been under the 50.0 mark since May 2025, signaling weakening economic activity.
Today's data point to deteriorating activity in the fourth quarter and a possibility that growth could be lower than the Bank of Canada had expected. In its October Monetary Policy report, the central bank had projected a 1.0 percent annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter after 0.5 percent in the third quarter. But the actual third quarter annualized growth rate came in at 2.6 percent. That being said, it masked signs of weakening domestic demand, with both household and general government consumption expenditures contracting. The advance monthly GDP estimate points to a 0.3 percent contraction in October. It remains to be seen whether the BoC considers this weakening material enough to lower the bar for a rate cut.
In November, 23.0 percent of purchasing managers reported higher purchases, down from 30.5 percent in October. By contrast, 33.9 percent reported lower purchases, up from 27.1 percent the previous month.
All indexes were down, except for supplier deliveries, which increased to 46.8 from 46.2.
The employment index fell to 45.8 in November from 50.8 in October. Forecasters in an Econoday survey estimate that the Canadian economy shed 5,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate climbing back to 7.0 percent from 6.9 percent. The November jobs report will be released Friday.
The inventories index came down to 46.4 from 50.0 and the price index to 62.9 from 63.5.
The unadjusted PMI index decreased to 44.5 from 51.7, falling below 50.0 for the first time since January of this year.
Today's data point to deteriorating activity in the fourth quarter and a possibility that growth could be lower than the Bank of Canada had expected. In its October Monetary Policy report, the central bank had projected a 1.0 percent annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter after 0.5 percent in the third quarter. But the actual third quarter annualized growth rate came in at 2.6 percent. That being said, it masked signs of weakening domestic demand, with both household and general government consumption expenditures contracting. The advance monthly GDP estimate points to a 0.3 percent contraction in October. It remains to be seen whether the BoC considers this weakening material enough to lower the bar for a rate cut.
In November, 23.0 percent of purchasing managers reported higher purchases, down from 30.5 percent in October. By contrast, 33.9 percent reported lower purchases, up from 27.1 percent the previous month.
All indexes were down, except for supplier deliveries, which increased to 46.8 from 46.2.
The employment index fell to 45.8 in November from 50.8 in October. Forecasters in an Econoday survey estimate that the Canadian economy shed 5,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate climbing back to 7.0 percent from 6.9 percent. The November jobs report will be released Friday.
The inventories index came down to 46.4 from 50.0 and the price index to 62.9 from 63.5.
The unadjusted PMI index decreased to 44.5 from 51.7, falling below 50.0 for the first time since January of this year.
Definition
The Ivey purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures purchasing activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers selected geographically and by sector of activity to match the Canadian economy as a whole. The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month-end data. Five categories are covered in the survey: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting).
Description
The Ivey PMI is provided in two formats -- unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. The index shows responses to one question:"Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?" A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.
The index measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers. The index uses end of the month data and it covers all sections of Canada's economy. The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month end data Ivey PMI panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month across the following five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.
The index measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers. The index uses end of the month data and it covers all sections of Canada's economy. The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month end data Ivey PMI panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month across the following five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.
