The Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI) for September remains consistent with mild expansion within month-to-month variation. The CFNAI three-month moving average points to relatively smooth underlying conditions for the past three months.

The Chicago Fed says, Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above 0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above 0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below 0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below 0.35."

The Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI) is up to minus 0.21 in September after minus 0.31 in August. The four broad categories of indicators that make up the index show 1 positive and 3 negative contributions in September. Among the categories 2 increased and 2 decreased.

Production-related indicators are up to minus 0.10 in September after minus 0.13 in August. Sales, orders, and inventories are down to minus 0.07 in September after minus 0.05 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are up to minus 0.01 in September after positive 0.01 in August. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are down to minus 0.06 in September after minus 0.03 one month ago.

The three-month moving average CFNAI in September is minus 0.21 compared to minus 0.18 in the prior month.

The Chicago Fed has not yet announced a release date for January for the October, November, and/or December national activity indexes. The preliminary calendar indicates that the January 2026 index is expected on February 23, 2026.

* CFNAI Set to Resume With Delayed Data Release Calendar
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNA) incorporates a range of data from government statistical agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the recent federal government shutdown. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will resume publication of the CFNAI on December 22, 2025, with an initial release covering data through September 2025. Release dates for the CFNAI in 2026 will be announced once further details on still delayed data releases are made available by the government statistical agencies.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.