Market Consensus Before Announcement

* CFNAI Set to Resume With Delayed Data Release Calendar
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNA) incorporates a range of data from government statistical agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the recent federal government shutdown. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will resume publication of the CFNAI on December 22, 2025, with an initial release covering data through September 2025. Release dates for the CFNAI in 2026 will be announced once further details on still delayed data releases are made available by the government statistical agencies.

Definition

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

Description

This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.
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