| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.1% to 0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 3-Months over 3-Months | -0.1% | 0.1% |
Highlights
The latest figures for October 2025 reveal declining momentum across most major sectors. Monthly GDP fell by 0.1 percent for a second consecutive month, marking a clear departure from the modest stability seen in August. The contraction is driven mainly by weakening services output, which fell by 0.3 percent, and a sharper 0.6 percent decline in construction. These declines overshadow the 1.1 percent rise in production, suggesting that growth is narrowly concentrated and insufficient to offset broader sectoral weakness.
Across the three-month period to October 2025, GDP also slipped by 0.1 percent, the first such decline since late 2023. The slowdown is underpinned by a steep 17.7 percent fall in motor vehicle manufacturing, which significantly dragged down overall production. Construction likewise contracted by 0.3 percent, reversing gains from the previous quarter. Services, traditionally the UK's key growth engine, registered no growth at all, extending a trend of gradual deceleration since early 2025.
Taken together, the latest updates indicate a stagnating economy facing simultaneous pressures across consumption-driven services, labour-intensive construction, and key manufacturing industries. Without renewed demand or sector-specific recovery, short-term growth prospects remain subdued. These updates take the RPI to minus 32 and the RPI-P to minus 38, meaning that economic activities continue to fall behind market expectations of the UK economy.
Across the three-month period to October 2025, GDP also slipped by 0.1 percent, the first such decline since late 2023. The slowdown is underpinned by a steep 17.7 percent fall in motor vehicle manufacturing, which significantly dragged down overall production. Construction likewise contracted by 0.3 percent, reversing gains from the previous quarter. Services, traditionally the UK's key growth engine, registered no growth at all, extending a trend of gradual deceleration since early 2025.
Taken together, the latest updates indicate a stagnating economy facing simultaneous pressures across consumption-driven services, labour-intensive construction, and key manufacturing industries. Without renewed demand or sector-specific recovery, short-term growth prospects remain subdued. These updates take the RPI to minus 32 and the RPI-P to minus 38, meaning that economic activities continue to fall behind market expectations of the UK economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Growth seen up 0.1 percent on the month in October after declining 0.1 percent in September with support from a recovery in manufacturing.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. The monthly report is based on output data only as the income and expenditure series are not available.
Description
GDP covers all aspects of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. GDP contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. However, the monthly report is quite limited and only provides data on the main output sectors. More detailed information is available in the quarterly reports.
