ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month0.2%0.0% to 0.3%0.0%-0.1%0.1%
Year over Year1.5%1.5% to 1.5%1.5%1.0%1.2%

Highlights

Retail activity in the euro area showed that monthly growth remained flat after the slight 0.1 percent revised rise recorded in September, suggesting that consumers maintained spending but showed little momentum heading into the final quarter. The annual trend was more encouraging as retail sales were up by 1.5 percent in the euro area, reflecting gradual recovery from the pressures of the previous year.

Monthly figures showed contrasting behaviour across sectors. Spending on food, drinks and tobacco rose by 0.3 percent, indicating stable demand for essentials. Automotive fuel also grew by 0.3 percent, hinting at continued mobility and travel needs. However, non-food products fell by 0.2 percent, pointing to cautious discretionary spending as households balanced budgets.

The annual showed that all major categories expanded as non-food products rose by 2.1 percent, suggesting that households were more willing to buy durable and semi-durable items over the year. Food-related sales and automotive fuel also showed healthy annual growth.

Regionally, France (minus 0.1 percent after 0.0 percent) and Germany (minus 0.3 percent after 0.3 percent) recorded falls while Spain (0.0 percent after minus 0.4 percent) was stable over the month. Overall, the retail sector appears steady but cautious, retaining modest annual gains that signal underlying consumer resilience. These updates take the RPI to minus 18 and the RPI-P to minus 9, meaning that economic activities, adjusted for prices are now within the expectations of the euro area economy.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Sales expected better at up 0.2 percent on the month and 1.5 percent on year versus minus 0.1 percent and up 1.0 percent in September.

Definition

Retail sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. Eurozone retail sales are reported monthly, in volume terms and exclude autos and motorcycles. A limited sector breakdown is presented in the first release but much more detail is available in the following period's release.

Description

Retail sales are important indicators of domestic consumer demand and are monitored closely by analysts as an important input to GDP. If you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors. The data are available in both value and volume measures although the press release deals only with volume. In addition to the total, the initial report provides a limited breakdown that separately identifies food, drink and tobacco, and (excluding automotive fuel) non-food products. A more comprehensive dataset is only available with the following month's release. Unlike the U.S. and Canada, auto sales are not included in the retail sales data.

The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
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