| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.2% to 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| Year over Year | 1.4% | 1.4% to 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
Highlights
The standout performer was investment: after a sharp contraction in the previous quarter, gross fixed capital formation rebounded by 0.9 percent, adding 0.2 percentage points to growth and signalling renewed business confidence and project restarts. Trade dynamics, however, exerted a drag. Although exports improved, the sharper rise in imports meant that net trade subtracted 0.2 percentage points, reflecting strong internal demand and persistent global uncertainties.
Overall, the latest data depict an economy leaning on domestic demand and revitalised investment to sustain momentum, even as external conditions weigh on its trajectory. These updates take the RPI to minus 15 and the RPI-P to minus 5, meaning that economic activity adjusted for prices are within the expectations of the bloc.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.
Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both typically lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures can put downside pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if inflation remains above the ECB’s near-2 percent target for long enough, worries about the impact of lost competitiveness on the merchandise trade balance could prompt investors to switch to an alternative currency.