| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M | 40,000 | -20,000 to 100,000 | 64,000 | 119,000 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.5% | 4.4% to 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% |
| Private Payrolls - M/M | 30,000 | 0 to 45,000 | 69,000 | 97,000 |
| Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M | -5,000 | -12,000 to -3,000 | -5,000 | -6,000 |
| Participation Rate | 62.5% | 62.4% | ||
| Average Hourly Earnings - M/M | 0.3% | 0.2% to 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y | 3.6% | 3.6% to 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Average Workweek | 34.2hrs | 34.1hrs to 34.3hrs | 34.3hrs | 34.2hrs |
Highlights
The monthly employment report for October and November reflects weakening conditions for the labor market with hiring on an uneven path lower and unemployment rising slowly. The BLS notes that the government shutdown has impacted their ability to collect the survey data normally for both surveys. The data reported may be subject to slightly higher than usual standard errors. The establishment survey is complete for October and November. The household survey was not done for October but was for November. Due to the timing of the survey reference period, government workers were counted as employed during the shutdown. The BLS said, It is not possible to precisely quantify the effect of the federal government shutdown on household survey estimates for November.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 64,000 in November after falling 105,000 in October. September payrolls are revised down to up 108,000. The consensus in the Econoday survey of forecasters for November nonfarm payrolls is up 40,000. The monthly average payroll change for the fourth quarter to-date is down 21,000 after the quarterly average of 51,000 in the third quarter, 55,000 in the second quarter, and 111,000 in the first quarter 2025. Monthly changes in payrolls have been uneven, but the temperate downward trend is clear.
Private payrolls are up 69,000 in November from increases of 19,000 among goods-producers and 50,000 in service-providing industries. Only a few industries register solid gains in November. Construction hiring is up 28,000 and healthcare and social assistance is up 64,000. These two categories contribute the bulk of new jobs. Government payrolls are down 5,000 in November, mostly from a decline of 6,000 in federal jobs.
Average hourly earnings are a scant 0.1 percent higher in November from October and are up 3.5 percent compared to a year ago. This is the lowest month-over-month increase since up 0.1 percent in August 2023 and the lowest year-over-year rise since up 3.5 percent in March 2020.
The unemployment rate is up to 4.6 percent in November and is a tenth higher than the 4.5 percent consensus in the Econoday survey. There is no rate published for October. The September unemployment rate is 4.4 percent after 4.3 percent in August. Unemployment seems to be rising incrementally and may be kept from rising more quickly by labor force participation. The participation rate is up to 62.5 percent in November after 62.4 percent in September and 62.3 percent in August.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 64,000 in November after falling 105,000 in October. September payrolls are revised down to up 108,000. The consensus in the Econoday survey of forecasters for November nonfarm payrolls is up 40,000. The monthly average payroll change for the fourth quarter to-date is down 21,000 after the quarterly average of 51,000 in the third quarter, 55,000 in the second quarter, and 111,000 in the first quarter 2025. Monthly changes in payrolls have been uneven, but the temperate downward trend is clear.
Private payrolls are up 69,000 in November from increases of 19,000 among goods-producers and 50,000 in service-providing industries. Only a few industries register solid gains in November. Construction hiring is up 28,000 and healthcare and social assistance is up 64,000. These two categories contribute the bulk of new jobs. Government payrolls are down 5,000 in November, mostly from a decline of 6,000 in federal jobs.
Average hourly earnings are a scant 0.1 percent higher in November from October and are up 3.5 percent compared to a year ago. This is the lowest month-over-month increase since up 0.1 percent in August 2023 and the lowest year-over-year rise since up 3.5 percent in March 2020.
The unemployment rate is up to 4.6 percent in November and is a tenth higher than the 4.5 percent consensus in the Econoday survey. There is no rate published for October. The September unemployment rate is 4.4 percent after 4.3 percent in August. Unemployment seems to be rising incrementally and may be kept from rising more quickly by labor force participation. The participation rate is up to 62.5 percent in November after 62.4 percent in September and 62.3 percent in August.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus for payrolls calls for a gain of 40K for November with the jobless rate up to 4.5 percent.
* BLS will not publish an October 2025 Employment Situation news release. Establishment survey data from the Current Employment Statistics survey for October 2025 will be published with the November 2025 data. Household survey data from the Current Population Survey were not collected for the October 2025 reference period due to a lapse in appropriations and will not be collected retroactively. For both surveys, the collection period for November 2025 data will be extended, and extra processing time will be needed.
* BLS will not publish an October 2025 Employment Situation news release. Establishment survey data from the Current Employment Statistics survey for October 2025 will be published with the November 2025 data. Household survey data from the Current Population Survey were not collected for the October 2025 reference period due to a lapse in appropriations and will not be collected retroactively. For both surveys, the collection period for November 2025 data will be extended, and extra processing time will be needed.
Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.
Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.
Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.
Description
If ever there was an economic report that can move the markets, this is it! The anticipation on Wall Street each month is palpable, the reactions can be dramatic, and the information for investors is invaluable. By digging just a little deeper than the headline unemployment rate, investors can take more strategic control of their portfolio and even take advantage of unique investment opportunities that often arise in the days surrounding this report.
The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them, what they're getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy. Nonfarm payrolls are categorized by sectors. This sector data can go a long way in helping investors determine in which economic sectors they intend to invest.
The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the list of opponents of easy monetary policy. Fed officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Fed is limited in providing economic stimulus.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.
Importance
The employment situation is the primary monthly indicator of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses all major sectors of the economy. It is comprehensive and available early in the month. Many other economic indicators are dependent upon its information. It not only reveals information about the labor market, but about income and production as well. In short, it provides clues about other economic indicators reported for the month and plays a big role in influencing financial market psychology during the month. Additionally, the Fed has made 6.5 percent unemployment a threshold for considering changes in policy - both for quantitative easing and the fed funds rate. And the Fed has emphasized that it is overall labor market conditions that matter - not just a specific number.
Interpretation
The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.
Nonfarm payroll employment indicates the current level of economic activity. Increases in nonfarm payrolls translate into earnings that workers will spend on goods and services in the economy. The greater the increase in employment, the faster is the total economic growth. When the economy is in the mature phase of an expansion, rapid increases in employment cause fears of inflationary pressures if rapid demand for goods and services cannot be met by current production.
When the average workweek trends up, it supports production gains in the current period and portends additional employment increases. When the average workweek is in a declining mode, it probably is signaling a potential slowdown in employment growth-or even outright declines in employment in case of recession.
Gains in average hourly earnings represent wage pressures. It is worth noting that these figures aren't adjusted for overtime pay or shifts in the composition of the workforce, which affects wages on its own. Market participants believe that a rising trend in hourly earnings will lead to higher inflation. But if increased wages are matched by productivity gains, producers likely will not increase product prices with wages because their unit labor costs are stable.
The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them, what they're getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy. Nonfarm payrolls are categorized by sectors. This sector data can go a long way in helping investors determine in which economic sectors they intend to invest.
The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the list of opponents of easy monetary policy. Fed officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Fed is limited in providing economic stimulus.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.
Importance
The employment situation is the primary monthly indicator of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses all major sectors of the economy. It is comprehensive and available early in the month. Many other economic indicators are dependent upon its information. It not only reveals information about the labor market, but about income and production as well. In short, it provides clues about other economic indicators reported for the month and plays a big role in influencing financial market psychology during the month. Additionally, the Fed has made 6.5 percent unemployment a threshold for considering changes in policy - both for quantitative easing and the fed funds rate. And the Fed has emphasized that it is overall labor market conditions that matter - not just a specific number.
Interpretation
The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.
Nonfarm payroll employment indicates the current level of economic activity. Increases in nonfarm payrolls translate into earnings that workers will spend on goods and services in the economy. The greater the increase in employment, the faster is the total economic growth. When the economy is in the mature phase of an expansion, rapid increases in employment cause fears of inflationary pressures if rapid demand for goods and services cannot be met by current production.
When the average workweek trends up, it supports production gains in the current period and portends additional employment increases. When the average workweek is in a declining mode, it probably is signaling a potential slowdown in employment growth-or even outright declines in employment in case of recession.
Gains in average hourly earnings represent wage pressures. It is worth noting that these figures aren't adjusted for overtime pay or shifts in the composition of the workforce, which affects wages on its own. Market participants believe that a rising trend in hourly earnings will lead to higher inflation. But if increased wages are matched by productivity gains, producers likely will not increase product prices with wages because their unit labor costs are stable.
