ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Index51.951.9 to 51.952.252.5

Highlights

The final S&P PMI manufacturing index for November topped expectations at 52.2 versus the consensus expectation of no revision from the 51.9 flash report for November. That is down slightly from 52.5 in October but suggests ongoing moderate growth.

Expansion in business activity for a fourth consecutive month (with the PMI above 50) reflected a solid rise in production and improvement in employment. Production was up at the fastest rate since August. Those strengths were limited by a slowdown on the demand side, partly reflecting weak sales, which led to an unusual rise in finished goods inventories for a second straight month.

Also concerning are ongoing elevated inflation pressures linked to tariff effects. With weaker customer demand and stiff competition, manufacturers are having more trouble passing on their higher input costs -- selling prices are up at the lowest rate this year.

Re sales, S&P said,"overall demand growth was modest and much slower than seen in October amid some ongoing market uncertainty. This was especially the case in international markets, where tariffs were reported to have led to a fifth successive monthly decline in new export trade. Amid a drop in sales to neighboring countries and key Asian economies, the decline in overall new export orders was the steepest since July."

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Forecasters look for no revision from the November flash at 51.9, down a bit from 52.5 in the October final.

Definition

Based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies, the Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index (PMI) offers an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across manufacturing industries. The final index for the current month is released roughly a week after the flash.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the Markit PMIs in the U.S. and elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The Markit PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.

Markit originally began collecting monthly Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data in the U.S. in April 2004, initially from a panel of manufacturers in the U.S. electronics goods producing sector. In May 2007, Markit's U.S. PMI research was extended out to cover producers of metal goods. In October 2009, Markit's U.S. Manufacturing PMI survey panel was extended further to cover all areas of U.S. manufacturing activity. Back data for Markit's U.S. Manufacturing PMI between May 2007 and September 2009 are an aggregation of data collected from producers of electronic goods and metal goods producers, while data from October 2009 are based on data collected from a panel representing the entire U.S. manufacturing economy. Markit's total U.S. Manufacturing PMI survey panel comprises over 600 companies.
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