| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims - Level | 219K | 205K to 232K | 236K | 191K | 192K |
| Initial Claims - Change | 44K | -27K | -25K | ||
| 4-Week Moving Average | 216.75K | 214.75K |
Highlights
In lagging data for the November 29 week, insured unemployment fell 99,000 to 1.838 million, marking the third consecutive weekly decline leading to the lowest level since April 12 week. The four-week moving average was down to 1.918 million from 1.945 million. The insured rate of unemployment edged down to 1.2 percent in the November 29 week, after remaining at 1.3 percent since the end of May.
Seasonal factors had expected an increase in unadjusted claims of 56,785 (28.7 percent) in the December 6 week from the previous week, but unadjusted claims rose far more, by 114,967 (58.0 percent).
Massachusetts (3,390), Wisconsin (3,379), Oregon (3,237) and Tennessee (3,205) all recorded increases topping 3,000 during the week.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.