Highlights
Powell repeated that there is no risk free path for monetary policy at this time. Powell noted that the base case for most policymakers is that price pressures from tariffs will be of limited duration, perhaps through the first quarter or so of 2026. We don't have precision on this, he added.The expectation that inflation is largely confined to tariff impacts means that the present inflation is less risky to the outlook than the weakening in the labor market.
Powell observed that even if hiring is down, the supply is labor is also down. As a consequence, the unemployment rate is not rising as quickly as it might. The labor market is weaker, but adjusting to the disruptions form the rapid adoption of AI or changing circumstances in the broader economy.
Powell indicated that after the December 10 rate cut, the fed funds rate is broadly within the range of neutral and less restrictive after three consecutive rate cuts of 75 basis points in all. He said that it will take some time for the impact of the cuts to be fully felt in the economy. In the meantime, he said that in the weeks before the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28, the FOMC will have much more data after the reports delayed by the government shutdown are released. At present, the FOMC is well positioned to make its decisions.