| Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|
| Orders Balance | -37% | -38% |
Highlights
The latest industrial trends survey signals a continuous downturn in UK manufacturing, with output volumes falling at the fastest pace since August 2020. The weighted balance of minus 30 percent highlights broad-based weakness, affecting 13 of the 17 sub-sectors, including major industries such as food, drink and tobacco, chemicals, and mechanical engineering. Manufacturers expect this decline to continue at a similar pace into February, reflecting deepening pessimism about near-term demand.
Order books remain historically weak. Total orders remained far below normal, and although export orders improved slightly from October, they remain well below long-run levels, suggesting ongoing challenges in global markets. The combination of subdued domestic and external demand leaves firms with limited scope to raise output.
Finished-goods inventories rose above long-run averages, signalling that stock is outpacing sales and hinting at demand shortfalls. Meanwhile, expectations for selling price inflation eased back to long-run norms, suggesting that firms have little pricing power amid weak order flows.
In summary, the survey depicts a manufacturing sector under acute pressure, grappling with declining output, fragile demand, and rising stock levels. Without a recovery in orders, the industry is likely to continue contracting into early 2026.
Order books remain historically weak. Total orders remained far below normal, and although export orders improved slightly from October, they remain well below long-run levels, suggesting ongoing challenges in global markets. The combination of subdued domestic and external demand leaves firms with limited scope to raise output.
Finished-goods inventories rose above long-run averages, signalling that stock is outpacing sales and hinting at demand shortfalls. Meanwhile, expectations for selling price inflation eased back to long-run norms, suggesting that firms have little pricing power amid weak order flows.
In summary, the survey depicts a manufacturing sector under acute pressure, grappling with declining output, fragile demand, and rising stock levels. Without a recovery in orders, the industry is likely to continue contracting into early 2026.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.
Description
Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
