| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.2% | 0.1% to 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.3% | -0.1% |
| Year over Year | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% |
Highlights
In line with the consensus expectation in an Econoday survey, Canada GDP recovered 0.2 percent in September, more than offsetting the 0.1 percent decline in August that was revised up from the 0.3 percent retreat initially reported.
Real GDP expanded 0.5 percent in the third quarter, following a 0.3 percent decrease in the second quarter.
The September rebound seems short lived, however, as the advance estimate for October points to a 0.3 percent retreat on the month.
The September recovery was led by a 0.6 percent gain in goods-producing industries, with four of five sectors expanding, while services edged up 0.1 percent after remaining unchanged in August.
Except for a 0.2 percent decline in construction, all main goods categories increased on the month, driven by a 1.6 percent advance in manufacturing, with durables up 2.1 percent and non-durables up 1.0 percent. Overall industrial production expanded 0.9 percent in September, including a 0.3 percent growth in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Both oil and gas extraction and manufacturing likely lost momentum in October based on the preliminary estimate from Statistics Canada. By contrast, mining, quarrying and support services likely increased in October.
In services, the picture was more mixed in September, with just six of 15 categories posting gains, led by a 1.2 percent increase in transportation and warehousing. The end of the flight attendants' strike led to a 6.0 percent gain in air transportation, the largest advance since May 2022, as airlines resumed operations.
Wholesale trade was up 0.6 percent, supported by a 3.4 percent gain in building materials and supplies, the largest in two nearly years. Food, beverage and tobacco wholesaling also rose in October.
Real GDP expanded 0.5 percent in the third quarter, following a 0.3 percent decrease in the second quarter.
The September rebound seems short lived, however, as the advance estimate for October points to a 0.3 percent retreat on the month.
The September recovery was led by a 0.6 percent gain in goods-producing industries, with four of five sectors expanding, while services edged up 0.1 percent after remaining unchanged in August.
Except for a 0.2 percent decline in construction, all main goods categories increased on the month, driven by a 1.6 percent advance in manufacturing, with durables up 2.1 percent and non-durables up 1.0 percent. Overall industrial production expanded 0.9 percent in September, including a 0.3 percent growth in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Both oil and gas extraction and manufacturing likely lost momentum in October based on the preliminary estimate from Statistics Canada. By contrast, mining, quarrying and support services likely increased in October.
In services, the picture was more mixed in September, with just six of 15 categories posting gains, led by a 1.2 percent increase in transportation and warehousing. The end of the flight attendants' strike led to a 6.0 percent gain in air transportation, the largest advance since May 2022, as airlines resumed operations.
Wholesale trade was up 0.6 percent, supported by a 3.4 percent gain in building materials and supplies, the largest in two nearly years. Food, beverage and tobacco wholesaling also rose in October.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters expect growth at 0.2 percent to top Stats Canada’s preliminary estimate of plus 0.1 percent for September after dropping 0.3 percent in August.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. In contrast to most industrialised countries a monthly estimate is provided derived from the value added by labour and capital in transforming inputs purchased from other producers into that industry's output. Data for the reference month are usually released close to the end of the second month after the reference period.
Description
Instead of producing an advanced quarterly GDP figure and revising it the following two months, Statistics Canada releases monthly estimates of real GDP at Basic Prices. This release breaks down real output by seven goods-producing industries and twelve service-producing industries, and includes special aggregations such as business sector, non-business sector, and industrial production.
The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.
The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.
