| Actual | Previous | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment- Q/Q | 0.0% | -0.2% | ||
| Employment -Y/Y | -0.6% | -1.4% | ||
| Unemployment Rate | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% to 5.3% |
| Labour Market Cost Index - Y/Y | 2.1% | 2.2% |
Highlights
New Zealand labour market statistics for the three months to September showed another quarter of weak employment growth and the unemployment rate increasing to its highest level since 2016. Labour costs grew at a slower pace. These ongoing signs of weakness in the labour market will likely reinforce the case for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut policy rates further in upcoming meetings.
Employment was flat on the quarter in the three months to September after falling 0.1 percent in the three months to June, with employment down 0.6 percent on the year after a previous fall of 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate rose from 5.2 percent to 5.3 percent, while the participation rate fell from 70.5 percent to 70.3 percent.
Headline private sector wages growth moderated in the three months to September. The labour cost index rose 0.5 percent on the quarter after a previous increase of 0.6 percent, while year-on-year growth in this index fell from 2.2 percent to 2.1 percent, the smallest increase since the start of 2021.
Employment was flat on the quarter in the three months to September after falling 0.1 percent in the three months to June, with employment down 0.6 percent on the year after a previous fall of 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate rose from 5.2 percent to 5.3 percent, while the participation rate fell from 70.5 percent to 70.3 percent.
Headline private sector wages growth moderated in the three months to September. The labour cost index rose 0.5 percent on the quarter after a previous increase of 0.6 percent, while year-on-year growth in this index fell from 2.2 percent to 2.1 percent, the smallest increase since the start of 2021.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The jobless rate is expected to tick up to 5.3 percent from 5.2 percent as labor force growth outpaces job gains.
Definition
The Labour Cost Index (LCI) measures movements in base salary and ordinary time wage rates and overtime wage rates. The non-wage component measures cost changes including annual leave and statutory holidays; superannuation; ACC employer premiums; medical insurance; motor vehicles available for private use low interest loans. The LCI is a measure of the extent to which changes in businesses' input costs put pressure on the output prices they charge for goods and services.
Description
As a measure of labour cost, the LCI helps the Reserve Bank of New Zealand measure inflation. The RBNZ, with an inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent uses this index in addition to other price indices to measure possible pressures in consumer prices.
RBNZ officials are always on the lookout for the prospects of inflationary pressures. Wage pressures tend to percolate when economic activity is booming and the demand for labor is rising rapidly. During economic downturns, wage pressures tend to be subdued because labor demand is down. By tracking labor costs, investors can gain a sense of whether businesses will feel the need to raise prices. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall.
RBNZ officials are always on the lookout for the prospects of inflationary pressures. Wage pressures tend to percolate when economic activity is booming and the demand for labor is rising rapidly. During economic downturns, wage pressures tend to be subdued because labor demand is down. By tracking labor costs, investors can gain a sense of whether businesses will feel the need to raise prices. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall.
