ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
Composite Index49.946.8
Manufacturing Index47.848.349.048.8 to 49.6
Services Index50.847.148.548.0 to 49.4

Highlights

The composite PMI reached a 15-month high of 49.9 in November, just shy of 50 above which marks expansion. In October, the index was 47.7.

But it's a tale of a split economy where services are improving and manufacturing in languishing. The services sector crossed into expansionary territory with a reading of 50.8 in November, the first expansion in 15 months, compared to 48.0 in October. At the same time, manufacturing fell to a 9-month low of 47.8 versus 48.8 in October.

Costs are also a concern, with businesses reporting increasingly higher prices for critical manufacturing inputs such as copper and aluminum, and higher wages.

Still, the twelve-month outlook improved in November with companies reporting higher sales forecasts and bringing new products to market. Still, forecasts are just that and it remains to be seen if those become reality.

While today's results are somewhat encouraging, weaknesses are still evident in the services sector with employment and order books still challenging. The manufacturing sector continues to face buffeting headwinds as new orders and production lag. The separate Business Conditions Index report confirms the challenging manufacturing environment which also brought to light the negative aspects of domestic and foreign order intake.

Currently, it's the services sector doing its part to help the private sector out of the doldrums and if there is any continued improvement it will not come from the manufacturing sector anytime soon.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The manufacturing index is expected at 49.0 in the November flash versus 48.9 in the October final. Services seen at 48.5 versus 48.0.

Definition

The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an early estimate of current private sector business activity by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. The flash data are released around ten days ahead of the final report and are typically based upon around 85 percent of the full survey sample. Results covering a range of variables including manufacturing output, employment, new orders, backlogs and prices are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The report also contains flash estimates of the manufacturing and services PMIs. The data are produced by S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
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