| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.0% | -0.1% to 0.1% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| Year over Year | 1.3% | 1.3% to 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| HICP - M/M | -0.2% | -0.2% | ||
| HICP - Y/Y | 1.1% | 1.3% |
Highlights
The monthly HICP fell 0.2 percent on the month, steady from October's reading. At 1.1 percent, the annual rate, down from 1.3 percent in October, is below the ECB's 2 percent target.
November's steady annual CPI rate was mainly due the decline in prices of transport (from 2.0 percent to 0.8 percent), unprocessed food (from 1.9 percent to 1.4 percent), recreation and personal care (from 3.3 percent to 2.9 percent), and energy (from minus 0.5 percent to minus 3.3 percent). This offset the rise in the prices of non-regulated energy products (from minus 4.9 percent to minus 4.4 percent).
Core inflation was 1.8 percent in November, down from 1.9 percent in October. The prices of groceries rose 0.4 percent on the month and 1.9 percent on the year, down from 2.1 percent in October.
This latest update puts the RPI at minus 24 and RPI-P at 4, meaning that the real economy is still performing within market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.