Manufacturing activity in September 2025 presents a mixed picture, with short-term improvement offset by ongoing structural weaknesses. New orders rose by 1.1 percent compared with August, helped mainly by strong demand in the automotive sector (3.2 percent), electrical equipment (9.5 percent), and other transport equipment (7.5 percent). This signals continued appetite for technologically intensive and export-oriented goods. However, the fall in fabricated metal products (minus 19.0 percent) and basic metals (minus 5.6 percent) highlights persistent fragility in upstream industrial supply chains and volatility linked to large one-off orders.

Consumer goods orders performed strongly (6.2 percent), potentially reflecting easing inflation and recovering household confidence, while capital goods stagnated, hinting at cautious investment sentiment. Foreign demand offered necessary support, rising 3.5 percent, especially from outside the euro area. Domestic orders, however, contracted by 2.5 percent, revealing weaker internal economic momentum.

Despite rising orders, manufacturing turnover fell by 2.1 percent on the month, indicating delays between ordering and revenue realisation, and possibly pricing pressures. In essence, manufacturing shows selective resilience, but underlying demand remains uneven and sensitive to sector-specific fluctuations. This latest update takes the RPI to 9 and the RPI-P to 3, meaning that economic activities are now within the expectations of the German economy.

Orders seen rebounding by 0.8 percent on the month to reverse the decline of 0.8 percent in August. On year, the consensus sees a 4.1 percent decrease.

Manufacturers orders are a leading indicator for industrial production. The figures are calculated every month by the Federal Statistical Office and represent the value of all orders for the delivery of self-made products confirmed by industrial enterprises with 50 or more employees in the respective reporting period. The results are broken down by both sector and region of origin (domestic and foreign split into euro area and non-euro area). Monthly volatility can be very high so moving averages give a much better guide to underlying trends.

Manufacturers orders data are keenly awaited by analysts each month. The data present a detailed breakdown by various sectors and a reading of the pulse of a major sector of the economy. Like the PPI, manufacturing orders data exclude construction, which is the preferred Eurostat measure.

The manufacturers orders data rank among the most important early indicators for monitoring and analyzing German economic wellbeing. Because these data are available for both foreign and domestic orders they are a good indication of the relative strength of the domestic and export economies. The results are compiled each month in the form of value indexes to measure the nominal development of demand and in the form of volume indexes to illustrate the price-adjusted development of demand. Unlike in the U.S., orders data are not collected for all manufacturing classifications - but only those parts in which the make-to-order production plays a prominent role. Not included are, for example, mining, quarrying and the food industry.