Highlights

Wholesale inventories are flat in August from July and up 0.1 percent in July from June. Wholesale inventories are 1.1 percent higher than a year ago. Wholesalers are not replenishing stocks after filling shelves earlier in the year to get ahead of tariffs on goods.

Durable goods inventories are up 0.1 percent in August. The two largest categories of durable goods inventories by dollar value are automotive and machinery. Auto inventories are up 0.4 percent in August while machinery is down 0.3 percent.

Nondurable goods inventories are down 0.1 percent in August after up 0.6 percent in July, and are up 3.3 percent compared to a year ago. The largest categories for nondurables show a 1.8 percent decrease in drugs, a 0.5 percent rise in groceries, and a 0.6 percent decrease in miscellaneous nondurables.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The consensus sees no revision from the flash at minus 0.2 percent.

Definition

Wholesale trade measures the dollar value of sales made and inventories held by merchant wholesalers. It is a component of business sales and inventories.

Description

Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers a slower rate of growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. Wholesale sales and inventory data give investors a chance to look below the surface of the visible consumer economy. Activity at the wholesale level can be a precursor for consumer trends. In particular, by looking at the ratio of inventories to sales, investors can see how fast production will grow in coming months. For example, if inventory growth lags sales growth, then manufacturers will need to boost production lest product shortages occur. On the other hand, if unintended inventory accumulation occurs (i.e. sales did not meet expectations), then production will probably have to slow while those inventories are worked down. In this manner, the inventory data provide a valuable forward-looking tool for tracking the economy.
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