Germany's October 2025 retail data reflects short-term volatility alongside signs of underlying resilience. Month-on-month, real retail sales fell by 0.3 percent, reversing September's revised 0.3 percent gain and falling behind the consensus forecast of no growth in October. This softening suggests consumers remained cautious as inflation and economic uncertainty continued to influence spending behaviour. Yet, on a year-over-year basis, real sales grew by 0.9 percent, indicating that retail activity is still stronger than a year earlier.

Food retailing was the standout performer, rising 1.2 percent month-on-month and 1.8 percent year-on-year, signalling stable demand for essential goods. Non-food retailers, however, saw a 0.7 percent monthly decline, hinting at reduced discretionary spending as households prioritised necessities. Online and mail-order sales also dipped by 0.6 percent from September, although their strong 4.0 percent annual increase shows that digital purchasing remains a key structural driver in the sector.

In summary, the latest data captures a retail landscape adjusting to shifting consumer priorities as steady long-term growth in essentials and e-commerce, but short-term pressures weighing on broader spending. The latest update takes the German RPI to minus 29 and the RPI-P to minus 35, meaning that economic activity continues to lag expectations in Germany.

Sales expected flat on the month and down 0.2 percent on year.

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data are compiled from about 27,000 retail businesses and are reported in both nominal and volume terms. Autos are excluded. A very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the initial report which is itself subject to sometimes sizeable revision but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release.

With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report. However, by excluding the services sector, changes in retail sales data can differ significantly from those in total household spending.