ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Composite Index51.151.1 to 51.152.250.1
Services Index51.151.1 to 51.152.350.8

Highlights

UK service sector growth gained momentum in October, with the services PMI rising to 52.3, up from September's 50.8 but falling short of August's 16-month high of 54.2. The composite PMI rose to 52.2 from 50.1. The reading remained above the 50.0 threshold, signalling faster expansion compared to September.

New business rose in October, mainly due to rising domestic demand. Employment fell only slightly, extending a year-long run of job losses as firms reduced headcounts to offset rising payroll costs. Input inflation remained above the long-run average but still reached an 11-month low, moderated to its lowest since November 2025.

Wage pressure remained one of the drivers of inflation. Firms also noted rising energy bills and food prices. Input costs rose at a pace above the long-run average; meanwhile, prices charged eased to its slowest since June due to easing cost pressures. Optimism persisted, with nearly half of firms forecasting growth over the year ahead.

Overall, October's updates show a service sector showing resilience in spite of rising costs and uncertainty. This leaves the RPI at 28 and the RPI-P at 50, showing that economic activity is moderately outperforming the expectations of the UK economy.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No change in flash seen in the final at 51.1 for both composite and services.

Definition

The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
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