| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | -14.5 | -14.8 to -14.0 | -14.2 | -14.2 |
Highlights
The flat reading may imply that recent economic developments, such as modest price changes, labour-market stability, or easing inflation, have not been strong enough to shift household sentiment. Instead, consumers appear to be waiting for more evident signs of improvement before adjusting their expectations. A level of minus 14.2 often reflects restrained spending intentions, which can slow retail activity and delay recovery in sectors dependent on household demand.
Overall, the unchanged figure reveals not worsening, but not yet inspiring renewed confidence. The latest update puts the RPI at minus 9 and the RPI-P at minus 10, indicating that economic activity is now within expectations for the euro area.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Since consumer spending accounts for such a large portion of the economy, the markets are always eager to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. The index is a broad measure of consumer confidence in the EU members and because of its coverage of all the EU countries it is highly regarded in the financial markets as a good indicator of the mood of consumers in each country. It is also normally a good indicator of quarterly GDP.
Data are available for each country and are aggregated for both the EMU and EU. The data are seasonally adjusted and defined as the difference (in percentage points of total answers) between positive and negative answers. The survey is conducted by the European Commission rather than Eurostat, the compiler of most other EMU data and measures consumer confidence on a scale of -100 to 100, with -100 indicating extreme lack of confidence, 100 indicating full confidence and 0 indicating a neutral opinion. The long-term average of the series is around -14.