Highlights
Inflation expectations remain anchored near 2 percent, and recent data suggest that the euro area's inflation outlook is broadly consistent with earlier projections, with core inflation showing only modest upward pressure. At the same time, domestic demand is slowly strengthening, helped by rising real incomes and looser financial conditions, even as manufacturing remains subdued by higher tariffs and a softer external environment.
Credit conditions are stable, with firm lending slowing slightly while mortgage lending records its fastest growth in over two years. Overall, the ECB sees no compelling evidence to adjust interest rates at this stage, favouring a wait-and-see stance ahead of December's fuller assessment. The balance of risks remains delicate, shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, elevated equity valuations, and uneven global trade dynamics.