ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Annual Rate4.090M4.020M to 4.200M4.10M4.06M4.05M

Highlights

Moderation in mortgage rates encouraged homebuying in October with contracts closed using loans taken out mostly in September. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said that the government shutdown did have some impact on closing contracts as some delays occurred related to federal programs could not take place, for example issuing flood insurance. Nevertheless, contracts not contingent on these sorts of programs did take place and at higher numbers than the prior month.

Sales of existing homes are up 1.2 percent in September to 4.10 million units at a seasonally adjusted rate after a negligible revision lower to 4.05 million units in September. Sales are up 1.7 percent from 4.03 million unitions a year ago. The October sales pace was close to the consensus of 4.09 million units in the Econoday survey of forecasters.

The Freddie Mac monthly average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell from 6.59 percent in August to 6.35 percent in September. The rate dips further to 6.25 percent in October and could mean another pick up in existing home sales activity in October and November, in addition to catching up with any delays in October closings.

Sales are up 1.5 percent in September to 4.06 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate after an unrevised 4.00 million units in August and 4.1 percent higher than 3.90 million units in the year ago month. The September increase matches the consensus of 4.06 million units in the Econoday survey of forecasters.

Sales of single-family homes are up 0.8 percent to 3.71 million units in October from September, and up 1.9 percent from a year ago. Sales of condos and co-ops are up 5.4 percent in October to 390,000 units and are flat from a year earlier. The burst of sales for muti-unit homes may reflect some renters buying now that rates are down and price increases have eased.

The supply of homes available for sale is slightly tighter at 4.4 months in October after 4.5 in September, and a little looser than 4.1 months in October 2024. The median price of an existing home is up 0.7 percent to $415,200 in October from September and up 2.1 percent to compared to $406,000 in October 2024. Prices tend to fall in the second half of the year. The modest increase suggests some competition for the more sought-after units.

The average number of days a listed unit is on the market is 34 in October, up from 33 in September and 28 in October 2024. First-time homebuyers are 32 percent of sales in October, up from 30 percent in September and 27 percent in October 2024.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Sales expected pretty flat at 4.09 million rate in October versus 4.06 million in September.

Definition

Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.

Description

This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.

Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
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