The seasonally adjusted FHFA house price index for September is unchanged from August after rising 0.4 percent in August from July. The index is up 1.7 percent from September 2024, the slowest year-over-year increase since up 1.7 percent in March 2012. Increases in home valuations for resales and refinancing have been easing fitfully since the start of the year. The moderation suggests that it is now a buyers' market in terms of negotiating prices and comes at a time when mortgage rates are favorable enough to spur some interest buying a home.

The unadjusted FHFA house price index for September is down 0.4 percent from August after a 0.2 percent decline in August from July. The index is up 1.7 percent compared to a year ago. It is typical for existing home prices to decline in the second half of the year. So far 2025 follows that trend.

Like its cousin, the Case-Shiller index, the FHFA is expected to show a marginal 0.1 percent rise on the month.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) covers single-family housing, using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The House Price Index is derived from transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. In contrast to other house price indexes, the sample is limited by the ceiling amount for conforming loans purchased by these government-sponsored enterprises (GSE). Mortgages insured by the FHA, VA, or other federal entities are excluded because they are not"conventional" loans. The FHFA House Price Index is a repeat transactions measure. It compares prices or appraised values for similar houses.

Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.

Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From its peak in 2007 to its nadir in 2011, FHFA's house price index fell nearly 30 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the index finally surpassing its prior highs in 2016.