Growing concerns about current economic conditions as well as rising negative sentiment regarding future employment and income prospects continue to weigh on the U.S. consumer, with inflation and concerns about finances top of mind.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index declined by more than expected in November to 88.7, down from a revised 95.5 (previously 94.6) in October, and falling significantly short of expectations for 93.3 in the Econoday survey of forecasters.

Consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions turned sour, while their short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions remained pessimistic and well below the threshold that indicates a recession ahead.

Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its second lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months, the report said. Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.

Price inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, and the federal government shutdown saw the most mentions, while labor market worries eased somewhat but still stood out among all other frequent themes not already cited.

Consumers' views of their current financial situations plunged to the lowest level since August 2024; perceptions of future family financial situations were also less buoyant.
Average one-year inflation expectations remained at 5.7 percent in November from October.

The Conference Board also said the share of consumers expecting a recession over the next 12 months declined again in November, but the share of those who believe the economy is already in a recession rose for the fourth straight month.

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for autos, both new and used, declined same for household appliances and most electronics. Plans to buy a home shrank in November but remain near two-year highs. Plans to purchase services in the coming months were curbed compared October.

Confidence seen down again at 93.3 in November from 94.6 in October and 95.6 in September. Consumers remain in a funk over high prices and job worries, plus the University of Michigan survey finds the high income segment is not happy about the tech stock selloff in the second half of November.

The Conference Board's confidence report surveys consumers on their assessments of the labor market, business activity, and their own financial conditions. The survey is conducted by Toluna, an online community platform. (Conference Board and Toluna)

The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

This balance was achieved through much of the nineties and, in large part because of this, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains. It was during the late nineties that the consumer confidence index hit its historic peak, reaching levels that were never matched during the subsequent 2001 to 2007 expansion nor during the long expansion following the Great Recession.

Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it's easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy. Just note that changes in consumer confidence and retail sales don't move in tandem month by month.