Highlights
While the decision for the current meeting to cut the fed funds target rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent is well supported by the majority of voters, that two voters dissented in opposite directions should be read as evidence of the diversity of opinions on the FOMC and the engagement with difficult circumstances. Risks to the labor market remain tilted to the downside, risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside. Powell noted that in trying to take a balanced approach to monetary policy, some FOMC participants may lean more to one side than the other.
Powell warns against making a foregone conclusion about the outcome of the December 9-10 meeting. He said policymakers will do so based on the available data whether that includes data currently delayed by the government shutdown or not. Powell noted that private and public sources of information may be less detailed than the major economic data from the US statistical agencies. However, he considers the data adequate to setting policy in an informed way, especially when supplemented by information from sources like the Fed's Beige Book. Powell said the FOMC should have the big picture and be able to assess if there is a material change in the economy.
The decision to conclude the program of balance sheet reductions on December 1 comes as the FOMC sees conditions in markets as consistent with an ample reserve environment. The size of the Fed's reserve holdings of US treasuries and mortgage-backed securities is down $2.2 trillion to $6.3 trillion. After December 1, reinvestments from mortgage-backed securities will be put into US treasuries as the Fed slowly returns to an all-treasuries balance sheet.
Powell called the government shutdown a temporary state of affairs and anticipates that growth will recover from the effects of the closure. On the US economy, overall it is a good picture and one in which the FOMC is well-positioned to fulfill the dual mandate.