Highlights

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges the challenges facing the FOMC and the strong opinions that characterize the October 28-29 meeting. Powell said the FOMC is squarely focused achieving the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. At a time when there is no risk-free path for monetary policy, Powell emphasizes that all FOMC participants are dedicated to fulfilling their obligations even though they may not agree on the best ways to do so.

While the decision for the current meeting to cut the fed funds target rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent is well supported by the majority of voters, that two voters dissented in opposite directions should be read as evidence of the diversity of opinions on the FOMC and the engagement with difficult circumstances. Risks to the labor market remain tilted to the downside, risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside. Powell noted that in trying to take a balanced approach to monetary policy, some FOMC participants may lean more to one side than the other.

Powell warns against making a foregone conclusion about the outcome of the December 9-10 meeting. He said policymakers will do so based on the available data whether that includes data currently delayed by the government shutdown or not. Powell noted that private and public sources of information may be less detailed than the major economic data from the US statistical agencies. However, he considers the data adequate to setting policy in an informed way, especially when supplemented by information from sources like the Fed's Beige Book. Powell said the FOMC should have the big picture and be able to assess if there is a material change in the economy.

The decision to conclude the program of balance sheet reductions on December 1 comes as the FOMC sees conditions in markets as consistent with an ample reserve environment. The size of the Fed's reserve holdings of US treasuries and mortgage-backed securities is down $2.2 trillion to $6.3 trillion. After December 1, reinvestments from mortgage-backed securities will be put into US treasuries as the Fed slowly returns to an all-treasuries balance sheet.

Powell called the government shutdown a temporary state of affairs and anticipates that growth will recover from the effects of the closure. On the US economy, overall it is a good picture and one in which the FOMC is well-positioned to fulfill the dual mandate.

Definition

The Fed announced in 2011 that then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke would hold press briefings four times a year to explain the FOMC's latest quarterly economic projections. The purpose of the briefings is to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions and to allow for questions-and-answers with the press. According to the Fed, the"introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy communication." The press briefing is held at 2:30 p.m. ET on the days of FOMC statements in which quarterly projections are released. Beginning in 2019, the briefing will be held after each FOMC meeting. The policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET after the conclusion of every FOMC meeting regardless of whether there are forecasts or not.

Description

The Fed’s meeting statement and economic projections can move financial markets. However, the Fed’s meeting statement — which indicates any changes in monetary policy—typically is very concise and lacking in detail. However, the Fed now releases its economic forecasts four times a year. As of March 20, 2013, the forecasts are released at the same time as the FOMC statement during the months of March, June, September, and December. After each of the 8 Fed meetings, the chair holds a press conference to explain the forecasts and other policy issues. The chair’s press conference allows for the financial markets and public in general to learn more about why and how the monetary policy decision was made and to learn more about FOMC views on the direction of the economy—including real growth, inflation, unemployment, expected timing of changes in the fed funds rate, and expected levels of the fed funds rate in the near term.
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