ActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month-0.2%-0.5%-0.4%
Year over Year-0.2%0.7%0.9%

Highlights

Retail sales fell 0.2 percent in August from July levels after a smaller revised 0.4 percent decline in July, seasonally adjusted. Compared to August of last year, sales were down 0.2 percent after a larger revised 0.9 percent rise in July. This is the lowest year-on-year sales have been all year.

The August revisions indicate that sales were slightly higher in July than first estimated. Consumers were likely purchasing more before the imposition of US tariffs in August. This is likely due to the 39 percent tariff imposed on Switzerland, not the 15 percent anticipated.

Consumers spent 0.1 percent less in August on food, beverages, and tobacco compared to July, while sales in the unhelpfully named other goods declined 0.6 percent. By far, the largest decline was in sales of information and communication products, down 2.1 percent in August after gaining 2.7 percent the month before.

The year-on-year decrease was partly due to a 0.9 percent decline in sales of recreational goods.

Today's data show Swiss consumers continuing to hunker down as US tariffs take affect.

Definition

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The survey comprises around 4,000 companies with the small-sized firms asked to provide monthly turnover data on a quarterly basis. Statistics are provided in both nominal and volume measures; the latter is the more important for financial markets. The headline figure is the annual growth in sales volumes adjusted for differences in trading days. Seasonally adjusted monthly changes are also provided. Details are limited in the first estimate but a more complete picture is provided with the following month's release.

Description

Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
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