| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.1% to 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
Highlights
Exports grew 2.2 percent in the third quarter, while imports fell 0.4 percent during the quarter. That resulted in net trade contributing 0.9 percent to overall growth during the quarter. Among the sectors, transportation -- primarily aeronautics, exports rose 8.9 percent in the quarter.
The trade results more than offset a minus 0.6 percent contribution from changes in inventories, which reverses a 0.5 percent contribution in the second quarter. Results from other indicators show that companies in the absence of new orders have been working through order backlogs.
On the spending side, consumers remained subdued and cautious with spending up 0.1 percent in the third quarter, the same rate as in the second. Government spending was more robust, rising 0.5 percent in both the second and third quarters.
Overall, the French economy produced 0.8 percent more during the third quarter than the second, led by goods production, up 1.5 percent. Services grew a more subdued 0.2 percent during the quarter.
The results show the French economy is more resilient than expected in the face of US tariffs, and suggest that companies are finding markets other than the US for their goods. Strength in the high-value aeronautics sector is encouraging and could lead to restocking of inventories, giving the manufacturing sector a further boost.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.