Canadian producer prices increased 0.8 percent in September and were up 5.5 percent year-over-year, picking up from 0.2 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively. Excluding energy and petroleum, wholesale prices also rose 0.8 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively.

The monthly gain was led by primary non-ferrous metal products, up 5.9 percent from August (26.4 percent year-over-year), energy and petroleum products, up 1.4 percent (5.7 percent year-over-year), and meat, fish and dairy products, up 0.7 percent (11.3 percent year-over-year).

Primary non-ferrous metal product prices were boosted by a 12.3 percent advance in unwrought silver and silver alloys, as well as a 9.1 percent gain in unwrought gold and gold alloys. Amid expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, silver and gold posted their largest monthly increase since April 2024.

A 44.3 percent gain in unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys also led the year-over-year Industrial Product Price Index higher.

On the downside, lumber and wood prices declined 4.4 percent on the month, for a 12-month decrease of 3.8 percent. Softwood lumber prices dropped 10.7 percent from August, the largest decrease since June 2022.

Raw materials' prices rose 1.7 percent on the month and 8.4 percent from a year earlier. Excluding crude energy, the index increased 3.1 on the month and 18.4 percent year-over-year. Crude energy was down 0.9 percent on the month and 8.6 percent year-over-year.

The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) reflects the prices that producers in Canada receive as the goods leave the plant gate. The IPPI excludes indirect taxes and all the costs that occur between the time a good leaves the plant and the time the final user takes possession of it, including the transportation, wholesale, and retail costs. The report also contains a measure of domestic producers' raw material costs (RMPI) which can be seen as a very loose leading indicator of the IPPI.

The IPPI reflects the prices that Canadian producers receive when goods leave the factory gate, that is, what producers receive for their output. This index is similar to the United Kingdom's producer output index. The index includes prices for major commodities sold by manufacturers, but it excludes indirect taxes and items such as transportation and wholesale and retail costs. The index is affected by the foreign exchange rate of the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar, and each month its impact is noted. The RMPI reflects the prices paid by Canadian manufacturers for key raw materials, either domestically or in world markets. It is published simultaneously with the IPPI and, like that index, has a base year of 1997 and is subject to revisions for six months. This index is analogous to the producer input price index published in the United Kingdom.

The IPPI and RMPI measure prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since these indexes measure prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months.

While the CPI is the price index with the most impact in setting interest rates, the PPI provides significant information earlier in the production process. As a starting point, interest rates have an"inflation premium" and components for risk factors. A lender will want the money paid back from a loan to at least have the same purchasing power as when loaned. The interest rate at a minimum equals the inflation rate to maintain purchasing power and this generally is based on the CPI. Changes in inflation lead to changes in interest rates and, in turn, in equity prices.

The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.