JAPAN SEPT RETAIL SALES +0.3% M/M (AUG REVISED UP TO -0.9% FROM -1.1%); MEDIAN FORECAST +0.5% (RANGE: +0.1% TO +2.5%)

JAPAN SEPT RETAIL SALES +0.5% Y/Y (AUG REVISED UP TO -0.9% FROM -1.1%); 1ST RISE IN 2 MOS AFTER FALLING 1ST TIME IN 41 MO IN AUG;MEDIAN FORECAST +0.6%

JAPAN SEPT RETAIL SALES Y/Y RISE LED BY MACHINERY EQUIPMENT, DRUGS, COSMETICS

Japanese retail sales are forecast to show a modest 0.6% rise on the year in September, only partly reversing the first drop in 41 months (-0.9%) in August, when dangerously hot and humid weather kept many people inside homes and offices during the day.

Department store sales are estimated to have maintained a year-on-year increase in September after posting their first gain in seven months in August, which was mainly in payback for store closures during stormy weather a year earlier and one more holiday this year. The continued decline in new vehicle sales also eased slightly in September.

On the month, retail sales are expected to mark their first rise in three months, up a seasonally adjusted 0.5%, after falling 0.9% the previous month.

Last month, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its assessment, saying retail sales were “taking one step forward and one step back,” instead of being “on a gradual pickup trend.”

Retail Sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data are part of the Preliminary Report on the Current Survey of Commerce.

Another way to look at consumer spending in addition to the household spending survey is through the retail sales report. This report gives the total value of goods and services sold each month at retail outlets. The preferred number is the change from the previous year. The report serves as a direct gauge of consumption and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is one of the most important leading indicators for the Japanese economy. Increasing sales signal consumer confidence and economic growth, but higher consumption also leads to inflationary pressures.