JAPAN SEPT INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +3.4% Y/Y (AUG REVISED DOWN TO -1.6% FROM -1.3%), 1ST RISE IN 3 MONTHS; MEDIAN FORECAST +2.4% (RANGE: +0.8% TO +3.8%)

JAPAN SEPT INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +2.2% M/M (AUG REVISED DOWN TO -1.5% FROM -1.2%); 1ST RISE IN 3 MONTHS; MEDIAN FORECAST +1.4% (RANGE: +1.0% TO +2.4%)

JAPAN METI KEEPS VIEW: INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT TAKING ONE STEP FORWARD AND ONE STEP BACK

JAPAN METI FORECAST INDEX: OCT INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT -0.5% M/M (ADJUSTED FOR UPWARD BIAS), NOV -0.9%

JAPAN JULY-SEPT INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT -0.1% Q/Q VS. +0.4% IN APR-JUNE, -0.3% IN JAN-MAR, +0.4% IN OCT-DEC

JAPAN METI: SEPT INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT M/M RISE LED BY MANUFACTURING MACHINERY, CHEMICALS, METALS

JAPAN'S INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND OTHER DATA SUGGEST JAPAN Q3 GDP TO POST 1ST CONTRACTION IN 6 QUARTERS AMID US TARIFF IMPACT AFTER Q2 SHOWED RESILIENT ECONOMIC GROWTH

Japan’s industrial production is forecast to post its first rise in three months, up 1.4% on the month in September, following a 1.5% drop (revised down from -1.2%), as real exports rebounded in the month thanks to recovering demand from Europe and despite the dampening effects of stiff U.S. tariffs on autos and metals. Trade data showed last week that Japan’s exports rose in September for the first time in five months, driven by robust shipments of computer chips to China and other Asian countries.

The monthly survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry released last month indicated that output would rebound by 2.3% in September before rising a further 1.2% in October. Last month, the ministry it repeated that industrial output was"taking one step forward and one step back." The last change was made in the July 2024 report, when it upgraded its view.

From a year earlier, factory output is also expected to mark the first increase in three months, up 2.4% after falling 1.6% in August (revised down from -1.3%).

Industrial Production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Factories manufacture various products, and the industrial production indexes have been prepared as a comprehensive indicator of wide-ranging production activities for such products and are regarded as some of the most important among economic indexes.

Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.

Industrial production provides key industry data for this export-dependent economy. The data are issued twice a month-a preliminary estimate at the end of the month for the preceding month and a revised estimate about two weeks later. All products, whether sold domestically or abroad, are included in the calculation of industrial production. Industrial production is highly sensitive to the business cycle and can often predict future changes in employment, earnings and income. For these reasons industrial production is considered a reliable leading indicator that conveys information about the overall health of the economy. This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.